Marine Le Pen could see these anticipated legislative elections as an additional step towards the 2027 presidential election. Member of Parliament for the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais since 2017, she is also a candidate for her own succession.
Marine Le Pen leaves the reins of these elections to Jordan Bardella, who is officially leading the legislative campaign as party leader. She does not wish, in fact, to claim the potential post of Prime Minister in the event of a victory leading the far right to compose a majority in the Assembly. “I have always told the French that we work as part of a political couple, me towards the Presidency of the Republic, and Jordan Bardella towards Matignon“, she said on the TF1 set Monday June 10. If such a scenario happened in July, she would become “president of the majority group of a cohabitation government”, as she mentioned in Figaro.
A role that would suit her well, assuring that she will “absolutely not be under the authority” of Jordan Bardella but that “the fact that the president of the group and the Prime Minister are extremely close politically is rather good news”, he said. she declared to the newspaper The world. She also wants to keep time to prepare for the 2027 presidential election: “Being a minister does not allow me to continue working on my presidential stature.”
These legislative elections are a big issue for the RN. “The Republicans are imploding, Reconquest! implodes, the government implodes. A block-to-block confrontation sets in. A general recomposition is taking place against a backdrop of the decomposition of France,” Marine Le Pen analyzed for the daily. She therefore places great hope in these new elections, especially after the results of the European elections: “June 30 could be the second wave of the tsunami. The first is strong, the second takes everything away”, she wants to believe. Marine Le Pen therefore wishes above all to obtain an absolute majority in the legislative elections because without it, the RN “could not pass a single measure” and “would have a motion of censure within 48 hours”.
What result for Marine Le Pen in the legislative elections?
If Marine Le Pen is involved in the campaign for these next legislative elections as a tutelary figure, she is also candidate for her own succession in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais, Hénin-Beaumont-Carvin. Facing her are several opponents, first and foremost the PS national secretary in charge of disability, Samira Laal, for the New Popular Front. She could prove to be a strong opponent, even if she is much less identified than her replacement Marine Tondelier.
The lawyer Geoffrey Fournier, delegate of Eric Zemmour’s party in Pas-de-Calais, is also there. In 2022, there was no Reconquest candidate. Also in the race are Dorian Lamy, a 36-year-old technician with no political experience who carries the colors of the UDI, Michel Lanoy, 59, an electrician-plumber representing LR/Oser la France, the ex-LFI Gautier Weinmann for the Sovereign Republic and finally Dominique Gai for Lutte Ouvrière. However, there will be no candidate from the presidential majority: Renaissance has ruled out Alexandrine Pintus, who had achieved 12% in 2022. It therefore remains to be seen who the support of the presidential party will go to.
Marine Le Pen is already well established in the region. In 2022, during the last legislative elections, she was elected with 61.03% of the votes in the constituency, during the second round against the ecologist Marine Tondelier, who obtained 38.97%. The MP even almost passed the first round with 53.96% of the votes but was prevented from doing so by the technical threshold necessary for the validation of the election in the first round.
She has retained this position since 2017, when she obtained 58.60% of the votes cast in the second round. The RN list for the Europeans also obtained 61% of the votes. A completely exceptional score which demonstrates that the commune and the constituency are now an electoral stronghold of the National Rally.
Furthermore, according to national polls, the RN remains at the top of voting intentions for the early legislative elections, with a score above the 30% mark. THE IFOP survey for LCI, Sud Radio and Le Figaro as of June 20 credits it, for example, with 34% compared to 29% for the left coalition and 22% for the presidential majority. These estimates remain national, and do not give the local political balance of power. However, they highlight that the RN candidates are generally more likely to win than those of the two other major political forces in this election.