BRUSSELS / VILNA Among other things, the leaders of the NATO countries meeting in the capital of Lithuania are expected to issue policies related to the situation in Ukraine. Ukraine’s NATO membership schedule divides positions within the alliance.
The meeting will also discuss the updating of NATO’s defense plans and the defense allocations of the member countries. It is hoped that Sweden’s NATO process will also progress at the summit.
One question that concerned the member countries was already resolved before the meeting, when the Norwegian to Jens Stoltenberg was granted a one-year extension in the position of Secretary General of the Defense Association. The leaders meeting in Vilnius are yet to give their support to NATO’s decision.
In this story, we list the five most important topics of the meeting, which also have a big impact on Finland.
1. Regional defense plans
At the Madrid summit held a year ago, the NATO countries agreed on a new one of the strategic conceptin which Russia was defined as the most significant threat to the stability and security of the Euro-Atlantic region.
Based on the strategic alignment, new defense plans have been prepared in NATO, in which the Russian threat is taken into account even better. The goal is, above all, to strengthen NATO’s defense of Russia’s border states.
The Russian threat is answered with three defense plans, which cover NATO’s northern and Atlantic regions, the Baltic and Central Europe, and the Mediterranean region and the rest of Southern Europe.
Defense plans also require updating NATO’s force structure. NATO is putting its 300,000-strong force on higher alert to strengthen defense and deterrence.
Last month, Finland gave NATO a commitment about which troops Finland is ready to give to NATO’s command in case of a crisis situation.
The information related to the group structure is not public. A high-ranking US official source tells that the contribution announced by Finland is significant. A significant part of the troops would focus on the defense of Finland.
– That makes sense, because you are defending the union’s front line, the official source states.
Over time, Finland should also be able to assign troops to operations elsewhere, the US official continues.
2. Defense appropriations
Strengthening the common defense requires financial contributions from the alliance members. NATO decided in 2014 that member countries’ defense budgets should rise to two percent of gross national product over the next ten years.
However, increasing defense budgets has proven to be laborious: last year only seven member states exceeded the two percent target.
Russia’s war of aggression has accelerated the member countries’ defense investments. In NATO, it is estimated that eleven member countries, including Finland, would exceed the two percent goal in 2023.
The development is expected to continue next year as well, when Germany, which has made large defense investments, and many other countries are expected to reach the two percent goal.
Now NATO is negotiating on the level to which the defense allocations should be raised in the coming years. According to General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, the two percent target should be a floor rather than a ceiling.
Setting a new goal requires unanimous approval from allies. In the background discussions, it is emphasized that the goal should be set at a level that the member countries can maintain in the long term.
3. Will Sweden’s NATO membership progress?
Sweden’s NATO membership is still without a final seal on the eve of the Vilnius summit. Full membership is hindered by the parliaments of Turkey and Hungary, which have not yet approved Sweden’s accession protocol.
Hungary has announced that it will accept Sweden’s membership if Turkey comes to a positive position on the matter. However, Turkey still pledges Sweden’s approval, and it is not known when the Turkish parliament plans to consider Sweden’s ratification.
Now the eyes are on the president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the prime minister by Ulf Kristersson to the evening meeting in Vilnius. The hope is that a top-level meeting would help to resolve the differences between Turkey and Sweden regarding Sweden’s full membership.
However, it is already clear in advance that Sweden will not become a full member of NATO during the Vilnius summit. However, President Erdoğan can announce that Turkey no longer sees any obstacles to Sweden’s membership.
After such an announcement, ratification could proceed quickly in the parliaments of Turkey and Hungary.
Sweden’s NATO process is also part of a wider foreign policy entity, in which relations between Turkey and the United States play a central role. The Turkish presidential administration announced yesterday that President Erdoğan will meet with the President of the United States Joe Biden in Vilnius.
According to the statement, the meeting will focus on Ukraine’s position in NATO, Sweden’s NATO membership application and the possible sale of US F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.
4. Support for Ukraine
President attending the Vilnius summit Volodymyr Zelenskyi hopes for clear steps from NATO to realize Ukraine’s NATO membership.
According to Zelensky, Vilnius should move on from the 2008 decision, in which the allies committed themselves to Ukraine’s NATO membership on a general level, without however specifying when or how Ukraine could become a member of the defense alliance.
Several countries in Eastern Central Europe hope for Ukraine’s rapid accession to NATO. Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas stresses that only NATO membership can guarantee Ukraine’s security.
However, many NATO countries, including the United States, are reluctant to lock in timetables as long as the war in Ukraine continues.
– I don’t think there is a consensus in NATO on whether Ukraine should be accepted as a member of NATO now, at this moment, in the middle of a war, US President Joe Biden told CNN on Friday.
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, for his part, stated that Ukraine must win the war so that the membership issue can be discussed at all.
The leaders of the NATO countries are therefore expected to commit to long-term political support and military aid for Ukraine.
According to ‘s information, NATO also wants to smooth Ukraine’s path to NATO by waiving the Membership Action Plan (Membership Action Plan) applied to new members.
5. NATO partnerships
NATO has intensified its cooperation with its partners in the Indo-Pacific region in recent years.
In the strategic concept approved at the Madrid summit, the Indo-Pacific region is linked for the first time to the security of Europe and the Atlantic region.
The leaders of Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand have been invited to the Vilnius summit as a sign of deepening cooperation.
NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners are united by concern about China’s growing military and geopolitical position and reluctance to condemn Russia’s war of aggression.
NATO is also discussing the opening of a separate liaison office in the Japanese capital, Tokyo.
However, the small office has developed into a big diplomatic mess Due to French opposition. According to France, NATO should focus on its basic task of securing the Euro-Atlantic region.
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