The warning is “severe”: it is 80% likely that the average annual temperature of the globe will “temporarily” exceed pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) by more than 1.5°C for at least one of the next five years, alerted the UN. Humans, responsible for global warming, represent the same “danger” for the planet as “the meteorite which exterminated the dinosaurs”, lamented the UN Secretary General this Wednesday, June 5.
“In the case of climate, we are not the dinosaurs. We are the meteorite. We are not only in danger, we are the danger”, launched Antonio Guterres during a speech on climate at the Museum of Natural History in New York. “This is a critical moment for the climate,” insisted the Secretary General, calling for “take the exit ramp from the highway to hell”, while the signatory countries of the Paris agreement must submit new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the start of 2025.
According to a bulletin from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), coordinated with a speech by the UN Secretary-General in New York, the world is moving “closer and closer” to the limits set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, signed by almost every country on the planet. The limit will be considered to have been reached when a warming of 1.5°C is observed on average over several decades, which is not yet the case; it is not impossible that next year will be colder than this year, etc.
In any case, it is even more likely (86%) that at least one of the next five years (2024-2028) will become the hottest on record, thus dethroning the year 2023. And the probability that the average temperature over 2024-2028, which is higher than that of the last five years, amounts to 90%.
Series of heat records
During his speech in New York, the UN boss also announced that May 2024 was the hottest May on record in the world, becoming the 12th consecutive month to break his own record. The European Copernicus Observatory made the same announcement in a publication coordinated with the UN weather agency.
With this series of records, “the average global temperature over the last 12 months (June 2023-May 2024) is the highest ever recorded”, according to Copernicus, i.e. “1.63°C above the pre-industrial average of 1850 -1900” when humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions had not yet warmed the planet.
In May, the average global temperature, on land and oceans, was 1.52°C above the norm for May in the second half of the 19th century. May 2024 is therefore the “11th consecutive month since July 2023 to reach or exceed by 1.5°C” the averages of the pre-industrial era.
Towards the end of the El Niño climatic phenomenon
This limit of 1.5°C is cited as an objective in the 2015 Paris agreement, signed by almost all countries. But such an anomaly would have to be observed on average over several decades to consider that the climate has stabilized at +1.5°C, which is not yet the case; It is not impossible that next year will be colder.
Over the past decade (2014-2023), the average increase is 1.19°C, compared to 1850-1900, according to a reference study published Wednesday in the magazine Earth System Science Data and on which around sixty renowned researchers worked. As for the year 2024, the natural climatic phenomenon El Niño, which has accentuated the effects of global warming for a year, “shows signs that it is coming to an end”, the World Meteorological Organization announced on Monday ( WMO).
The opposite cycle, La Nina, synonymous with cooler global temperatures, is expected to arrive later this year, according to the WMO. But this cooling, climatologists warn, could be on average very small compared to the warming effect of humanity’s emissions.