There are mixed estimates of Vladimir Putin’s upcoming speech on Victory Day. According to international experts, exiting the war is very difficult for the Kremlin.
8.5. 11:37 • Updated May 8th. 12:39
As the Victory Day celebration approaches, experts are considering how the Russian president will Vladimir Putin reacted to the poor success of its army in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.
Putin’s intentions have been speculated as the celebration on May 9 during his reign has been raised to increasing value. Victory Day officially celebrates the victory of Soviet forces over the Nazis in the “Great Patriotic War” of 1941-1945.
Although Russia seems to be preparing for the celebration of the widely destroyed city of Mariupol, for example, it is difficult to declare major victories on Monday.
Professor at London University College Ben Noblen according to Russia, vague goals make it difficult to declare victory at all.
Difficulties on the front are forced to veil
Russian political commentator Anton Barbashin considers that, although economic and foreign policy pressure to end the war is also being felt in Moscow, the continuation of the conflict may still be an option for maintaining credibility.
– Russia would like all this to be over, but in some good way, Barbashin says.
Barbashin ponders that Putin will have to frost the situation on the front and also sell future inconveniences as some kind of “bun”.
– Putin understands the financial risks of the conflict and the fact that many problems still lie ahead. He will likely have to present a vision of future difficulties and overcoming them.
The price of war is starting to feel even harder for ordinary Russians as well, as sanctions make everyday life more difficult. According to Barbashin, part of the people still do not understand why Ukraine had to be attacked.
“Mobilization is not a panacea”
The general mobilization outlined in some estimates would make the war a tangible reality even for those Russians who have been able to follow events on television evening news in the past.
In addition, mobilization would have significant economic implications for a state that is already heavily taxed by warfare. Nor would it necessarily have a major impact on the success of the war.
– Putin is not a panacea for Putin. By the time the new troops are brought to the front, the existing ones may already be completely depleted, says a former member of the U.S. National Security Council and an expert on Russia. Jeffrey Edmonds.
– Every effort is now being made to attack. These forces are no longer capable.
Correction 8.5.2022 at 12:38 In the second caption, the name of the statue was originally in English, corrected in Finnish.