The Kessler syndrome: Scientists raise the alarm about space debris

Scientists warn of a chain reaction in space that threatens all existing satellites.

The catastrophic scenario is known as the Kessler syndrome and would have major consequences for humanity.

– If we do nothing, we are in immediate danger, says space physicist Dan Baker.

The belt of space debris around Earth is tighter than ever. Weapons tests, rocket launches and previous collisions between satellites have resulted in countless objects hurtling through space at a speed almost seven times faster than a pistol bullet.

Nasa and other experts are already monitoring tens of thousands of pieces of scrap from Earth. They are all larger than a tennis ball and therefore trackable. In orbit there is according to CNN millions more objects too small to detect.

– Even with the best sensors there are limits to what can be detected. Smaller pieces of space junk are often impossible to track, says Bob Hall, director at the space company COMSPOC to the television channel.

“A great threat”

Even small scrap parts have the potential to do great damage. The enormous speed means that only a centimeter-sized piece of paint would make it through metal objects. Increase the measurement to 10 centimeters and such a space projectile would have an explosive force equivalent to seven kilograms of TNT, according to Nasa

“It is easy to see how collisions between scrap parts at such high speeds pose a major threat to our space program,” the authority wrote back in 2016.

Now the researchers are warning that the risk is increasing for what has long been known as the Kessler syndrome. It is a catastrophic scenario from 1978, named after NASA astrophysicist Donald Kessler, where the amount of space debris reaches a critical mass where each collision triggers a chain reaction of several new ones. In the end, orbit around the earth is so full of junk that the satellites are knocked out and new space flights become impossible, writes CNN.

– The amount of objects that we have launched into space in the last four years has increased exponentially. We are approaching the situation we have always feared, says Vishnu Reddy, professor and space scientist at the University of Arizona to the television channel.

“Immediate Danger”

According to Space.com, there are already 10,200 active satellites in space. Most of them are in what is called low earth orbit – a distance of 200-2000 kilometers from the earth. About 6,800 of the existing satellites belong to Elon Musk’s SpaceX, but the number is increasing all the time.

Space.com writes that Musk’s future plans for the Starlink network mean that the total will exceed 40,000 satellites.

“It’s time we get serious and realize that if we don’t do something, we are in immediate danger of rendering a large part of the Earth’s technological environment unusable,” said Dan Baker, director of the Space Laboratory at the University of Colorado, during a panel discussion in Washington just under a month ago.

According to experts, Kessler syndrome is not a sudden event but a process over time. CNN reports that scientists are divided on whether or not it has already started.

But the consequences for humanity would be far-reaching. In a study from 2023, two scientists warned that “all existing satellites” are threatened if the nightmare scenario becomes reality, writes Newsweek.

In the report is listed what is threatened by the syndrome. In addition to knocking out GPS systems, the internet and television broadcasts, a wide range of businesses would be at risk.

check Space industry