A great specialist in the ideological functioning of the Islamic Republic, Abbas Milani has published numerous works and recently authored texts in Woman, life, freedom under the direction of Marjane Satrapi (Ed. L’Iconoclaste, 2023). For L’Express, he analyzes the consequences of the unexpected death of President Raïssi and the impact of the elections announced for June 28. As well as the battle for succession to the most important position in the country, that of Supreme Guide, for which Raïssi was also expected.
L’Express: After the sudden death of Ebrahim Raïssi, are we facing a succession crisis in Iran?
Abbas Milani: There is a crisis of legitimacy, a deep crisis of legitimacy, in the sense that the regime wanted to tell the story of a tragic death and the Iranians did not believe it for a second, they made a lot of jokes about the subject. The population does not believe a single story told by the regime. This is a mafia-style puppet government. Raïssi was a man with very little substance, in a very insignificant position. Just like Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. He was an almost clownish figure, and this is the disappearance of two incompetent managers, in a system where they had no power. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei did not seem like someone who was saddened by the death of a comrade, but rather relieved to be rid of an idiot [NDLR : Raïssi].
Especially since Raïssi was expected to succeed Khamenei and the latter seems to want to place his son Mojtaba, creating a “dynasty”, which seems to go against the foundations of the Islamic Republic…
It was becoming increasingly clear that Raïssi was essentially a fool. Every time he spoke spontaneously, he embarrassed the regime. The Supreme Leader’s entourage no doubt said that once he becomes president, the aura of the office will help dispel the reality of his role in the murder of thousands of innocent people. [NDLR : en 1988, il est procureur de Téhéran, alors que sont tués des milliers d’opposants]. This was not the case. This only brought him more and more to the forefront. And I don’t think he was really a serious candidate for succession. Many pseudo-experts say that Khamenei does not want his son to become his successor because it is too similar to the monarchy. It’s absurd ! If he doesn’t want it to be his son, he just has to say “I don’t want my son to succeed me. It’s monarchy. And I don’t want it.” He didn’t say it, and he did the exact opposite, eliminating anyone who might challenge that. Shiism is a matter of family succession, at the heart of the fundamental fight they are waging against the Sunnis. Khamenei clearly wants his son to take his place, but I’m not sure he will win because the ultimate arbiter will be the Revolutionary Guards organization, not Khamenei. If they decide Mojtaba is unreliable, it won’t be him. Mojatba was known to be close to former IRGC intelligence chief Hossein Taeb [NDLR : démis de ses fonctions en juin 2022].
A recent article from The Economist raised the idea that Mojtaba Khamenei could be a sort of equivalent in Iran of Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, known for his relative desire to modernize the country. Does this hypothesis appear credible?
We know very little about Mojtaba, which is indicative of a sort of mafia atmosphere. There is a strong possibility that it is the Revolutionary Guards who decide on the content of its governance. They may tell themselves that they need to modernize the system in order to retain the share of power and wealth they have accumulated. They own half the country, notably through religious foundations which are managed by the IRGC. They therefore have every interest in maintaining the status quo, not so much on an ideological and revolutionary aspect but as an economic entity, and they might be ready to make changes if necessary.
The next elections will take place on June 28. The regime has always taken care to maintain a democratic facade, do you think that these will have their effect again?
This facade was once “democratic”. This is no longer the case. Raïssi was not elected according to the normal definition of an election. If you eliminate all possible candidates and put only my name on the ballot, I can be the next president of France. And I would not have been “elected”. The next election will probably be even worse. We could otherwise see the return of well-known but marginalized figures within the regime such as former Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif. [qui avait négocié l’accord sur le nucléaire]or ex-presidents Mohammad Khatami [1997-2005] or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad [2005-2013]. The latter have in mind that the regime is going through some sort of crisis and that it might be necessary to turn to them to save it. They therefore position themselves as an alternative. But everything indicates that for the next president, it will be more of a form of anointing than an election.
Could this somehow restart the protest movement or will the process take longer?
This is a lengthy process. The protest takes many forms: a few minutes after the fall of this helicopter, we could see that Iranian social networks are those of a society in rebellion. They make so much fun of this regime, its lies, its leaders. The protests are about more than just people taking to the streets. These are not just jokes, they are a form of protest.
Do you understand the anger of Iranian opponents at the minute of silence for Raisi at the UN?
I understand it perfectly. Ebrahim Raïssi was nicknamed “the butcher of Tehran” for the thousands of deaths he caused, not only in the 1980s but also all those who have died in the demonstrations since September 2022. These people had the only sin of wanting to ‘equality. For an international body to observe a minute of silence for a man with such a bloody record is a parody of diplomatic decorum.
The war in Gaza continues, Israel appears more and more isolated on the international scene. Does this serve the anti-Western narrative carried by the Islamic Republic?
The continued outbreak of violence in Gaza is contrary to the law, humanitarian values and long-term interests of Israel and, clearly, the citizens of Gaza held hostage by a terrorist group called Hamas. This only maintains the discourse held by the Islamic Republic. Iran promotes a narrative that there can be no two-state solution, that Israel must be destroyed. The continuation of Netanyahu’s policies contributes to fueling this narrative. Conservatives in Iran and conservatives in Israel do not accept the two-state solution, and reinforce each other. There can be no peace in the Middle East without having two states. Two democratic and viable states; ideally secular. Those who do not understand this are only sowing the seeds of further violence in the Middle East.
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