In a war, counting casualties is often a real challenge, as there are so many obstacles. Challenge that two Russian-speaking media attempted to take up. In a joint investigation, Mediazona and BBC News Russian, establish, week by week since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, a list of victims of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
In total, the media declare that they have identified 45,123 soldiers who died on the Russian side over the period from February 24, 2022 to February 20, 2024. Mobilized soldiers, volunteers, fighters from private military companies or prisoners who had joined combat units in exchange for an amnesty. Soldiers who for “two thirds […] had no connection with the army before the invasion,” points out BBC News Russian.
A much heavier real toll
A list is established using death notices, press releases from local authorities, obituaries published in the media or on social networks. But a non-exhaustive list. “These figures only represent a partial account and do not reflect the full extent of the losses,” warns on its Mediazona website. According to estimates by BBC News Russian, it could turn out to be twice as high. Especially since on the front line, military losses are often kept secret. The last official Russian report dates back to September 2022. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu then acknowledged the deaths of 5,937 Russian soldiers.
Since the outbreak of the conflict, several institutions and media outlets have attempted to establish a count of fallen soldiers. Based on assertions by American officials, the New York Times, estimated military losses at 70,000 dead and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded on the Ukrainian side, 120,000 dead and 170,000 to 180,000 wounded on the Russian side. This was in August 2023. More recently, on January 29, British Defense Minister James Heappey estimated Russian losses at more than 350,000 dead and wounded.
A figure below that used by the Ukrainian army, which claims to have killed or injured nearly 405,000 Russian soldiers in two years. In Moscow, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke in December 2023 of 383,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded since the start of the invasion.
Five times more civilians killed, according to estimates
If the gap between the estimates and the actual toll of dead soldiers is significant, it is nothing compared to the gap constituted by the difference between the official figures of civilians killed and the reality. The last report from the Ukrainian authorities dates back to June 2023, and reported 10,368 civilians killed. However, these are only the people whose bodies were found.
“We estimate that the most probable is that this number is five times higher. So around 50,000” victims, then specified Oleg Gavrych, senior advisor to the head of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s cabinet. Same story from the UN, which is concerned about a “considerably higher” real toll.
Especially since for the moment, no count has been able to be carried out due to the lack of access to the territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia. This is the case of Bakhmut but also of Mariupol. According to kyiv, 25,000 Ukrainians died, buried in mass graves, during the siege of this large southern port city, which came under Russian control in May 2022.
If the figures are to be taken with a grain of salt, Russian civilian losses undoubtedly remain much lower than the Ukrainian civilian toll. According to the Russian news site 7×7, 145 Russian citizens have lost their lives since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the second anniversary of which is about to be celebrated.