A convoy of four ships is heading towards Murmansk in the ice in the Kara Sea on the northern coast of Siberia.
The Russian nuclear icebreakers Arktika and 50 Let Pobedy escort two cargo ships Audax and Pugnax in the Northeast channel.
The cargo of the cargo ships are house-sized elements made in China, which will be used to build a new natural gas production line in the Russian Arctic region.
The Finnish company Aker Arctic has followed the ships’ journey on its X-account. It has designed the Audax and Pugnax ships for year-round operation in the sea areas of the polar region.
The convoy is the only one going through the Northeast Channel at this moment. On the northern coast of Siberia, the thickness of the ice is typically one and a half meters at this time of the year.
At worst, the convoy has been stuck in the ice so that it has progressed only five nautical miles a day. Ships from China are estimated to arrive in Murmansk at the turn of February-March.
In the dead of winter, the convoy passes sparsely populated arctic shores where ports are being built, oil and gas terminals are being opened, and military sites are being upgraded.
This article tells about how Russia uses the Northeast Canal more actively than ever, both economically and militarily.
Russia wants the Northeast Railway to be open all year round
The Northeast Passage is the sea route of the Arctic region from the Barents Sea on the northern coast of Norway to the Bering Sea off Alaska via the Kara Sea, the Lapvet Sea, the East Siberian Sea and the Arctic Sea.
The sailing season on the canal typically lasts from June to November. Traffic is busiest in August and September.
Ships have occasionally passed through the Northeast Channel in winter conditions before, but last November the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak announced that year-round traffic on the railway would start in 2024.
The tenacious travel of Audax and Pugnax signals that Russia is really striving for this, even if more regular year-round traffic is possible only later.
– It is terribly difficult to estimate when. Some say that it would be possible already in the 2030s. Others estimate that later, says University researcher Sanna Kopra From the Arctic Center of the University of Lapland.
But climate change is already making it easier for Russia to operate in the Arctic region.
In addition to the Northeast Passage in the north, climate change will promote traffic opportunities on the Northwest Passage and even through the North Pole.
Russia establishes, renovates or re-uses military sites along the Northeast Canal.
Natural resources guide development
Climate change knows two things.
At sea, the ice is thinning and receding. It is easier to get hold of natural resources on land.
Satellite images show how quickly Russia has been operating in the Arctic region in recent years.
The Utrennyi terminal has been built in Obinlahti between the Yamal and Gyda peninsulas, which serves the Arctic LNG-2 gas field of Russia’s largest private gas producer, Novatek.
By pressing the date buttons on the picture, you can see how the construction has progressed.
Finally, the structures that will come aboard Audax and Pugnax will also arrive at the Utrenny terminal, as long as they are assembled in Murmansk.
On the same day, a similar case can be found in the Yenisei Bay.
There, the Buhta Sever oil port has been built along the Northeast Channel, which serves the oil field of the oil company Rosneft.
This kind of construction will increase in the coming years. Russia’s goal is to increase its current 8 percent share of the world market for liquefied natural gas to 20 percent by 2030.
Economic and military interests go hand in hand
In the Arctic region, Russia’s military needs and ambitious economic projects come together.
Already during the Cold War, the Arctic region was a central part of the Soviet Union’s national defense strategy.
From behind the ice curtain, in a possible conflict, nuclear strikes coming over the polar region had to be detected and repelled.
Some of the stations and bases at that time were abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union as unnecessary or left to decay due to lack of money. Now the ice curtain rises again along the Northeast Channel, when Russia returns them to use.
In the West it is followed for a long time among other things, the growth of the Nagurski base in the Archipelago of the Arkhangelsk region on Aleksandra’s land.
A tactical group of the Arctic ground forces and an air surveillance station are located there, and it serves as a base for the air force.
The satellite images show that work has been done elsewhere along the Koillisväylän.
– Russia is expanding the military infrastructure also in the central and eastern parts of the Arctic region, but in a longer time frame, estimates the professor of the Norwegian National Defense University Katarzyna Zysk.
For example, in Tempi, between the Lappetev Sea and the East Siberian Sea, there is a military site comparable to Nagurskoje. The previously gravel runway there has now been renovated for the air force.
On the other hand, the headquarters of the 3rd Air Defense Division, which is responsible for the air defense of the Northeast Channel, is located in Tiksis, located on the shores of the Lapvetevin Sea.
The satellite images show perfectly, for example, the appearance of a radar station on the southwest side of the airbase.
Maritime surveillance aircraft of the Northern Fleet can be found at the Severomorsk-1 airfield near Murmansk, even on public maps.
Katarzyna Zysk says that Russia’s threat assessment is driven by a possible conflict with the United States.
The equipping can be seen specifically as the strengthening of radar stations as well as air and missile defense.
– They have not covered this up, Zysk says.
Zysk reminds that also the civil projects of the Northeast Canal – ports, icebreakers, terminals – can be in dual use. So they can also be used militarily.
– Everything that Russia does has to be watched, Zysk points out.
The gas and oil terminals as well as the development of the Tiks airbase are examples of how economic and military projects are progressing hand in hand right now.
The war in Ukraine took partners
Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has also affected its activities and goals in the Arctic region.
Katarzyna Zysk reminds that Russia also acts from the north in the conflict in Ukraine.
Arctic brigades have fought in Ukraine.
In addition, Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers have been brought to the Olenja air base in the Murmansk region, out of the reach of Ukrainian attacks.
Also on the energy front, the war of aggression has brought a back pack. Russia’s own resources alone are not enough to develop the Northeast Railway.
– Western partners have been the most important for Russia, because Russia has needed their know-how as well as investments, and it also needs them in the end to use the Northeast Corridor why, says Zysk.
For example, Novatek has partners from China, Japan and France in the LNG-2 project.
Last November, the United States put the project under sanctions, which prevents, among other things, payment traffic.
In December, foreign shareholders withdrew from active operations.
However, the elements coming aboard Audax and Pugnax show that China will continue supplying components.
Due to the sanctions, there is also a shortage of LNG tankers, and markets for energy have to be found elsewhere than in Europe.
The war in Ukraine accelerates Europe’s disengagement from Russian oil and gas, to which its economy is linked.
– For Russia, this is a threat, researcher Sanna Kopra says.
Even though the first production line of LNG-2 started operating at the end of the year, Novatek has not made a single transport from there.
China is planning its steps carefully
In every way, China would be Russia’s most natural partner on the Northeast Corridor, but it is not involved either.
Economically, China would benefit from the Northeast Corridor the more the traffic there would become lighter. Last year, the amount of cargo on the Northeast Canal reached a record of 2.1 million tons.
The drop in 2022 was due to the fact that the western operators stayed away due to the war of aggression.
The Northeast Canal could shorten freight transport to Europe, for example, from the ports of Northeast China to 10–12 days.
The journey through the Suez Canal now takes 21–23 days and around Hyväntoivoniemi 28–30 days.
Sanna Kopra estimates that in the economic union of the Arctic region, Russia would like to advance faster and further than China.
However, China has its own reservations. It wants to balance here between east and west.
– China is carefully watching how it positions its steps in the Arctic region. It does not want to feed the narrative that it is an expansionist and aggressive state, says Katarzyna Zysk.
The same Russia as Ukraine
In spite of everything, the North-Eastern Railway is in the hands of Russia. Traffic runs on its economic waters.
If it wishes, Russia can decide that the Northeast Corridor is only available to friendly countries.
– Russia can define what kind of standards have to be followed there or whether, for example, it is necessary to use the help of a Russian icebreaker, says Sanna Kopra .
Katarzyna Zysk says that the Russian navy already practiced a scenario last year in which it expelled a foreign ship that entered the Northeast Channel without permission.
– It was communicated who is in charge there, Zysk says.
All the countries of the arctic region are preparing for the fact that in the future tensions in the north will increase either intentionally or unintentionally.
– Tensions will certainly increase because the competition for resources is increasing, says Sanna Kopra.
Katarzyna Zysk says that we have to be vigilant about Russia’s intentions.
– Russia in the Arctic region is the same as Russia in Ukraine. It just uses other tools to achieve its goals.
Also used as sources: The American Security Project, AP, The Barents Observer, CNN, CRS, CSIS, The Guardian, The High North News, MDPI, Reuters, ScienceDirect, TASS
Headline of the article from Novatek’s LNG-2 gas field: Maksim Blinov/AOP
On February 17, the World Politics Everyday program discussed the rising tensions in the Arctic region: