The confusing success of the Democrats was largely due to the compunction of the Republicans, writes ‘s US correspondent Iida Tikka.
Iida TikkaYhdysvaltain correspondent
WASHINGTON.
These by-elections will go down in history.
As of this writing, it is clear that the Democrats will at least retain their narrow majority in the Senate. If the second round of the Georgia state election ends with the victory of the Democratic candidate, the majority will even increase. The defeat of the Democrats in the House of Representatives will also be very narrow – the counting of votes there is still in progress.
In the last hundred years, a sitting president has only managed to defend his party’s positions in the Senate three times and lose less than ten seats in the House of Representatives. The last time this happened was in 2002, President George W. Bush with support (you switch to another service) a whopping 68 percent during the midterm elections.
Biden’s popularity is one of the lowest in history. The Democrats headed to the midterm elections in a situation where inflation has remained at a record high and the global energy crisis is tormenting the people at the gas pumps.
Sounds a bit like a Democrat president Jimmy Carter’s period in the late 1970s. Inflation was this high last time and the oil crisis shook the market. But Carter’s Democrats lost seats in both the House and Senate in the midterm elections.
So how did the Democrats succeed this time? Or would a better question be how did the Republicans fail so badly?
The most obvious reason for the Republicans to failure can be found at Mar-a-Lago. You could even say that the former president Donald Trump lost to the Republicans for the third election in a row.
One after another, Trump-backed candidates lost their elections in those states where there is real competition between the parties. Losses in state-level gubernatorial and secretary-of-state races were particularly notable, where the so-called suffragettes lost one after the other.
The defeats are an important victory for democracy in terms of the upcoming presidential elections, because now the election protesters will not be able to prevent the acceptance of the voting results in the Libra states.
Even before the midterm elections, it seemed clear that Trump would once again become the Republican presidential candidate for the 2024 presidential election. Now the candidate seems most likely to have winged the party’s election victory in Florida Ron DeSantis.
Another obvious reason is simply that the Republican policies proved too radical for the American people. The party’s attempt to restrict the right to abortion across the country is at war with the sense of justice of the majority of Americans.
This led, for example, to the majority of independent voters who are not registered as members of either party voted democrats (you will switch to another service).
It is once again exceptional in the history of midterm elections. As well as the fact that, based on the preliminary results, many voters may have “split their ballot”, i.e. vote for both parties for different positions.
If you want to take your interpretation far, you could think that issue-oriented politics is making a comeback in the United States. The voters did not move against Biden as the Republicans hoped, but for the changes they wanted.
Although the radical candidates lost in these elections, polarization will not go anywhere in one election.
The Republicans’ new number one, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, is almost identical to Trump in his policies, except for spreading conspiracy theories related to the election.
Democrats continue to struggle to serve their diverse electorate, which is best united by Republican opposition. Especially when it is practically impossible for the party to carry out its political goals in a divided Congress.
Even if inflation didn’t drag Democrats down, a recession is likely ahead before the 2024 election. Much like Jimmy Carter’s term in 1980, Biden’s first term as president could also end with rising unemployment if the recession drags on.
Carter remained president for one term, and was succeeded by his chosen successor Ronald Reagan turned the country’s politics sharply to the right.
Trump and DeSantis are now fighting to replace Reagan this decade. Both are even more radical in their policies than Reagan.
The election result gave faith in the durability of American democracy under pressure, but the moderation of the Republicans is still waiting for its time.
You can discuss the topic on 14.11. until 11 p.m.
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