“Hell.” A “critical” or even “extremely complex” situation. The Ukrainian army assures us without concession: in Avdiivka, the emergency is becoming more and more pressing in the face of the Russian attacker. This industrial city in the east of the country, in Donbass, has become the epicenter of the fighting in Ukraine since the fall, with crucial objectives for both camps.
On Kiev’s side, since the failure of the counter-offensive and the return to a much more defensive war, it is above all a question of holding its positions as long as possible while continuing to inflict extremely heavy damage on the Putin’s army. Mission partly accomplished: Moscow forces suffered colossal material and human damage in Avdiivka. Last December, a Ukrainian colonel spoke of an average of 300 to 400 Russian losses per day, while the Ukrainian general staff went as high as 931 Russian daily losses in November.
But for the Russians, what do losses matter: taking control of this ruined city would above all be a strong signal sent to Ukraine and the West. Nearly two years after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, and with a presidential election approaching whose future winner is already known, the objective is clear: to show that Russia continues to advance inexorably on the front, making his victory inevitable. “The objective of the Russians is now mainly symbolic, General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the National Defense Magazine. The city is nothing more than a pile of stones. Given the sacrifices made by Moscow, any capture of the city will at this stage only be a Pyrrhic victory.”
An “unreal” situation
General Pellistrandi’s prediction appears to have been correct. Because if Ukraine has managed as best it can since October to hold its positions, the situation has clearly deteriorated since the start of the year in the face of the increase in resources provided by Russia. This Thursday, February 15, new Ukrainian troops were “urgently redeployed” to reinforce the garrison in “the hell of Avdiivka”. This new brigade claimed to be carrying out counterattacks on neighborhoods conquered by the Russians, estimating the opposing forces in its area at “around seven brigades”, or several thousand people, with reinforcements continuing to arrive. “We are forced to fight 360 degrees against new brigades,” said unit commander Andrii Biletsky.
Last week, the mayor of Avdiivka himself spoke on television, warning and expressing great concern about an “unreal” situation in certain places. “Unfortunately, the enemy is pressing on us from all sides, there is not a single part of our city that is more or less calm. They are attacking with very large forces.”
According to the Telegram channel DeepState, close to the Ukrainian army and followed by more than 600,000 people, Russian forces advanced this Wednesday to the north and south of Avdiivka in their attempt to cut the city in two, the situation “continuing to deteriorate due to incessant shooting. More reserved, the Ukrainian army general staff declared that the Russians were continuing their attempts to “encircle Avdiivka”. “Our soldiers firmly held the defense, inflicting significant losses on the invaders” and “repelled 34 enemy attacks in the Avdiivka sector,” assured the General Staff in its morning report.
Zelensky in Europe to ask for more help
Faced with this critical situation, eyes are obviously turned towards Western aid, which is more essential than ever. The Ukrainian forces, on the defensive on most of the front, constantly repeat that they lack men, weapons and ammunition due to lack of sufficient Western support. In particular, the Russians have artillery support in Avdiivka that is significantly greater than that of the Ukrainians, in addition to the incessant waves of soldiers succeeding one another in the industrial city.
This weekend promises to be very important for Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian president must first sign an unprecedented security agreement with France this Friday at the Elysée, like the one signed with the United Kingdom in January. Enough to allow its army to access more modern military equipment or to strengthen its defense industry.
This Saturday, Zelensky will then deliver a speech at the Munich Security Conference, a forum for informal exchanges on defense and international relations. The Ukrainian president will meet in particular with American President Kamala Harris, with the problem of the aid package for kyiv still blocked in Congress by the Republican opposition. But while NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg himself confirmed this Wednesday that these 60 billion dollars blocked were already having an “impact” on the battlefield, Avdiivka could well be the first city to suffer.