What really happened in the Ukrainian sky on August 26? A week after the F-16 crash, doubts about the cause of the fall persist. First, there was this nebulous communication, which occurred four days after the accident. Then the statement of an elected representative in Parliament attributing it to a Ukrainian shot. Finally, the dismissal without explanation of Mykola Oleshchuk on Friday, August 30.
An ouster that did not fail to fuel suspicions about the possible responsibility of the high-ranking officer in the crash of the fighter plane that occurred at the beginning of the week. Thus, the hypotheses have since continued to accumulate, overlap and contradict each other, accentuating a little more the mystery surrounding the accident that cost the life of one of the most experienced pilots of Ukraine.
An elusive communication
Let’s rewind. On Monday, August 26, Ukraine suffered what experts described as the most significant attack since the beginning of the war: a rain of some 200 Russian missiles and attack drones fell on the territory. In flight, as part of a mission to protect the airspace, a dozen F-16 fighter jets, piloted by Ukrainians, managed to destroy four missiles. But as one of the planes was about to intercept another target, the link with the ground control post was lost.
At the controls of the aircraft was a certain Oleksi Mes, nicknamed “Moonfish” in french). Aged thirty, this native of the Khmelnitski oblast in western Ukraine is a confirmed pilot, renowned for having fought for the delivery by the Americans of F-16 fighter jets.. However, it would take three days for the Ukrainian army to soberly announce his death. “The plane crashed, the pilot is dead,” it declared in an evasive statement published on Thursday, August 29.
The hypothesis of a Ukrainian shot
Shocked by this first crash of an F-16 fighter, whose fleet has only been delivered to Ukraine since mid-summer, voices are being raised. One in particular is pushing the authorities to shed light on the real causes of the accident: that of MP Maryana Bezuglaya, also a member of the Defence Committee in Parliament. The elected official suggests that a Ukrainian shot could have been the cause of the plane crash, the third to be shot down by mistake by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defences, according to her. And she says: “The two previous incidents, which did not involve F-16s, were officially attributed to the Russians.”
But the elected official does not stop there. In a Telegram loop, Maryana Bezuglaya directly attacks the military hierarchy, pointing out a failing technical coordination between the different units. The parliamentarian denounces among other things “the culture of lies” which would harden the military command and questions the fact “that no generals have been punished”, citing in particular the name of General Oleshchuk. The same one who, the next day, a few hours after having assured “not to hide anything” and hammered home his determination to “discover the causes of the air disaster”, will be dismissed by the tenant of the Maryinsky Palace Volodymyr Zelensky, who promised to open a thorough investigation.
Bureaucracy, the “cancer” of the Ukrainian army?
On Saturday, August 31, two senior American military officials dismissed Maryana Bezuglaya’s allegations, assuring that it was unlikely that friendly fire was the cause of the F-16’s downing. And to list other possibilities such as mechanical problems or pilot error. To our colleagues at New York Times, A former Ukrainian Air Force official confirms that “many factors could have led to the loss of the F-16,” citing in particular the state of the aircraft but also “external factors.” For example, it is possible that fragments of a destroyed missile collided with one of the vital parts of the aircraft.
For their part, Ukrainian military analysts insist that it is far too early to speculate on the causes of the crash, but suggest that coordination errors cannot be ruled out. Especially since air defense systems and F-16 fighter jets had never worked together in such complex conditions until Monday, August 26. However, at the time when the F-16s were trying to destroy the Russian missiles, three different defensive systems were activated.
An active-duty pilot who agreed to speak to the New York Times, subscribed has the hypothesis of a lack of coordination between units of the Ukrainian army. Under cover of anonymity, the Ukrainian soldier who reveals that he follows the instructions of manuals dating from the Soviet era in the context of his missions, denounces an “obsolete” command organization. And tackles: “Bureaucracy is the cancer of aviation.”