On an annual basis, the value of gold usually rises by around 8 percent per year. It’s an average, and nothing you can guarantee. For example, the price of gold fell in 2013 in terms of Swedish kronor.
Real gold that sparkles
But for the most part, you can count on a gold bar to increase in value year after year. It tells Michel Rufliwhich runs the gold exchange Nordic Gold Trade, which offers, among other things, the storage of gold bars in collaboration with Loomis Sverige AB.
Loomis is the company responsible for storing parts of the Riksbank’s gold reserve.
– Real gold is something you should buy and forget you have year after year. It’s not something you should buy and then sell the following week, he says.
Geopolitical concerns
The price of gold has shocked several times with sudden rises. Usually it is in connection with major geopolitical or economic unrest.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the kilo price of gold rose by SEK 100,000 in one month.
The canary in the mine
It is the largest increase in a short time ever.
– The gold price is like the canary in the coal mine. If the price rises rapidly, it indicates concern in the world, says Michel Rufli.
And since then, the price, and the concern, has continued upward. Firmly.
Decline since May
A kilo of gold has cost SEK 842,242 at most. That was in May 2024, in connection with the sudden cooling of the US economic outlook.
Several indicators suggest that the recession and inflation are continuing, which means continued high interest rates. And that leads to worry for investors.
Uncertainty drives up the price
Then you want something stable that you can hold on to, rather than buying up small risky currencies or shares on the stock exchange.
– An actual gold bar is like an anchor in the portfolio. A safe investment when so much else is uncertain, says Rufli.
Crashing in price – with 50,000 kroner
After the peak on May 20, however, the price of gold has fallen drastically.
Now a kilo of gold costs 788,641 Swedish kronor. That’s still well above the price at the start of the year, but 50,000 lower than the “All time high” on May 20.
Don’t sell the animal grabbers
But Rufli is not going to panic sell his gold.
– No, I really won’t. Since the turn of the year, the price of a kilo of gold has risen by SEK 100,000, and even though the summer slump came early this year, there is nothing to indicate that the gold price would be on the way down in the near future.
At the turn of the year, a kilo of gold cost SEK 676,178. Since then, the price has risen.
This means that on paper you could have bought a kilo of gold on that occasion, sold it on May 20 for SEK 150,000 more expensive, and now in the summer slump bought even more for the money before the next rise.
The worry persists
But that is not a reasonable approach, he thinks. The price of gold will possibly drop when the unrest in the world disappears.
– But in reality, some of the major problems that led to economic and political unrest in the 21st century have not been resolved. On the contrary. So there is no reason to believe that gold will become less valuable in the near term.
A strange year
However, a strange development is taking place. Since May, the price has fallen sharply during a period associated with great concern. Putin’s war, the ground offensive in Gaza and a gloomy new economic outlook coincide with a falling gold price.
In addition, the price of gold usually falls in July, but not in May.
– I think it has to do with two things. One is that you always have to count on a rebound when the gold price rises as steeply as it did this spring. And the second is that there is a cyclical decline during the summer months, which happened to come earlier this year.
The Swedish krona is growing stronger
To this, one can also add that the Swedish krona has strengthened somewhat during 2024 against the euro and dollar, which are the primary currencies used to buy gold internationally. However, that effect is small.
At the time of writing, one dollar costs 10.59 SEK compared to 10.76 in mid-May. One euro costs 11.31 compared to 11.71 in mid-May.
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