After the “clash of civilizations” and another inane “end of history”, here is a new concept supposed to explain contemporary geopolitics: the “Global South”, which would compete with a West itself largely fantasized by its despisers and worshipers .
That we are no longer in 1945, when the United States produced 45% of the world’s GDP and five European states still owned almost all of Africa and a large part of Asia, will not have escaped anyone. . There is little doubt that a form of multipolarity has succeeded the bipolarity of the Cold War, and everyone will also admit that in relative terms, given the phenomenal rise in economic power of China, North Americans and Europeans weigh less than in 2000. But this “Global South” does not embody or demonstrate anything, let us rather judge.
Diplomacy first. How many states did not condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022? Certainly, but they are only about forty out of 193 and, among them, only a small handful of indigent states (Nicaragua, Eritrea) or grotesque and subservient states (North Korea, Syria) supported Moscow; the others, including the only two heavyweights of this “global South”, China and India, abstaining or not voting. There is anti-imperialist rhetoric targeting Europeans and Americans? Yes, but not new, dating back to the 1950s and the Non-Aligned Movement!
Then the economy. China has become the second world power? Of course, but depending on the West for the purchase of its products for export, and having exchanged 700 billion dollars with the United States in 2022, barely less with Japan and the EU, i.e. the two great economic and military partners of… Washington! The Brics set up a bank? Indeed, but among others, and which remains weakly endowed (100 billion dollars). As for the Brazilian, South African and Russian economies, they are at half mast and very little interactive, the Indian largely depending on Western investment and trade to develop. Sahelo-sub-Saharan Africa? 49 States which together account for less than 2% of world trade, and whose respective internal situations are unfortunately degraded, even chaotic… This continent where Westerners still invest twice as much as all the other States (again, except China) and that henceforth loot the mercenaries of the Wagner militia, Russian in this case.
Rivalries in shambles
The strategy, finally and above all. Take the example of India, never aligned since its independence in 1947; it is both a signatory of a military nuclear cooperation agreement with Washington, technically at war with China in Kashmir, a buyer of French, Israeli and American military equipment, and a partner of the powers of reverse of Beijing that are Japan and Australia within the Quad, privileged military allies… of the United States. The Rings ? Compared to the overpowered and very coherent NATO, what is that between China and its only ally North Korea (contiguous and totally dependent) or that between India and two of its neighbors in the Himalayas? As for Brazil and South Africa, they have no projection force, Turkey – however duplicitous it may be – prudently remaining a member of NATO, on which its military credibility depends!
The Arab League? Of its 22 members, 3 no longer exist except on paper, 10 are military allies of Washington (including Saudi Arabia and… Iraq!), Paris or London, 6 of which host Western bases. The only real hostiles left are Syria, bloodless and subservient to Moscow and Tehran, and Algeria. We will concede that Riyadh seeks not to appear submissive to Washington, but the translation of this legitimate will is reflected in rhetoric and gestures (for example, the choice of Beijing to sponsor the resumption of diplomatic relations with Tehran), not yet in the strategic. The icing on the cake: giants from Latin America and Asia-Pacific are structurally united with Washington either economically (Mexico) or militarily (Japan, Philippines).
Ultimately, within each zone or State of this “Global South”, the inter-State, inter-ethnic and inter-confessional rivalries are such that they alone would invalidate this concept, and, without China, it would have absolutely no sense. One more lazy concept…
* Frédéric Encel is an essayist and geopolitical scientist