It was with undisguised joy that Marine Le Pen welcomed the result of the November 22 elections in the Netherlands and the victory of one of her oldest friends on the European scene. “Congratulations to Geert Wilders and the PVV for their spectacular performance in the legislative elections which confirms the growing attachment to the defense of national identities, tweeted the president of the National Rally group in the National Assembly. It is because there are people who refuse to see the national torch extinguished that the hope for change remains alive in Europe.”
The victory of the Party for Freedom (PVV) and its white-maned Islamophobic leader is a thunderclap not only in the Netherlands, but also in Europe. According to national media, he himself did not expect to obtain 37 seats (23.5% of the votes) out of the 150 in the “Second Chamber”, the local National Assembly. This is more than double than during the previous election, in 2021 (17 seats, 10.8%). The alliance formed by the Socialists and the Greens, in second place, plateaus at 25 seats.
It seems unlikely that Geert Wilders, who benefits from a focus of debates on immigration, will take the head of a government, as his style and ideas arouse the rejection of other parties. He wants to stop arms deliveries to Ukraine; does not hide his sympathy towards Vladimir Putin; until recently expressed public hatred of Islam; and defends, unlike Marine Le Pen, the principle of her country’s exit from the European Union (“Nexit”). However, it is not excluded, at this stage, that it will be part of a coalition bringing together parties ranging from the right to the extreme right.
The test of the European elections
Such alliances rule several EU member countries: Sweden, Finland and Italy, as well as pro-Russian populist Robert Fico’s Slovakia and Viktor Orban’s Hungary. In Germany, the AfD is on an upward slope: 20% voting intentions for the whole country and a rise in power in the Landers, as well as in the East (more than 30% for the regions of Thuringia , Saxony and Brandenburg, where elections will take place next year) than in the West. In Portugal, where the socialist government resigned in the face of accusations of corruption, the new far-right party, Chega, exceeds 15%.
All expect to achieve good results in the European elections next June. “Proportionality by lists makes them release ballots for anti-Europeans and are quite favorable to national-populist parties, recalls Jean-Yves Camus, director of the Observatory of political radicalities at the Jean Jaurès foundation. It will be interesting to see , after the result, if the EPP (which brings together the European right) continues to do better than all the radical right parties (the Identity and Democracy group – that of the RN – and that of the European Conservatives and Reformists – of the First Italian Minister Giorgia Meloni).”
The Geert Wilders surprise in the Netherlands, although he is not a new political actor, is a welcome signal for Marine Le Pen, currently leading the voting intentions for the French presidential election. “She sees a trend which suggests good things for her party and her,” said Jean-Yves Camus. “But we must not forget that it is the national contexts which ultimately determine the election.” And that of the next French head of state will only take place in three and a half years, in the spring of 2027.