In the Middle East, the political continental plates have shaken to a new position in recent months.
The supremacy of the United States in the region seems to be ending and new gamblers are joining.
This is what the Middle East experts interviewed by think.
A major chain reaction of changes began in March, when old enemies Saudi Arabia and Iran reconciled their years-long enmity and restored mutual diplomatic relations. China was the broker of the agreement.
This story opens up new power relations in the Middle East.
Agreement brings hope
The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran can calm many conflicts in the Middle East where these regional superpowers are against each other, Yelle’s Middle East professor estimates Hannu Juusola from the University of Helsinki.
The confrontation and power struggle between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran has been one key factor in the conflicts in the Middle East.
According to Juusola, the agreement still does not mean that the power struggle between the Saudis and Iranians will end, or that the two countries will become best friends.
– It means that this very worrying phase would be over for the time being and it would be possible to build something more positive, says Juusola.
One of the reasons for the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the desire to find a way out of the civil war in Yemen, a peace and conflict studies professor tells Ashok Swain from Uppsala University.
The Saudis have supported the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels fighting the Iranian government in the war that began in 2014.
Swain characterizes the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran as a huge step to ease the confrontation between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.
The US got a challenger from China
The Middle East has traditionally been a strategically important region, Swain reminds. Control of the oil-rich region has determined who has the upper hand in world power relations between West and East.
Another significant change is that China, which acted as the midwife of the Saudi Arabia-Iran agreement, took on the role of a significant diplomatic gambler in the Middle East for the first time, Juusola states.
China understands that it needs to gain a key position in the Middle East in order to be a leading global power, says Ashok Swain.
China has made huge investments in the Middle East for a long time. In addition, the intensified cooperation between China and Russia in recent years has affected power relations in the Middle East, Swain estimates.
He considers that the influence of the United States in the region is weakened by the president Donald Trump’s since the season. For example, China has not cared about the economic sanctions that the United States has imposed on Iran.
The United States no longer has a clear allied camp in the Middle East, whose support it could rely on when pursuing its economic or strategic goals, says Swain.
– If the Middle East turns towards China and Russia or remains neutral and independent, it is a strong sign that the United States has lost its position in the global power struggle, Swain estimates.
According to him, it is very possible that the Middle East will become closer to China and Russia. The reason is that neither of them requires their partners to believe in democracy or to respect human rights and freedom of expression.
Professor Hannu Juusola also believes that the supremacy of the United States in the region seems to be coming to an end.
A new order is taking shape
The mutual structuring of relations between the states of the Middle East will take on a more important role, describes Juusola.
There is already evidence of such a trend.
In early June, the commander of the Iranian Navy announced news agencies according to which Iran would establish a maritime alliance with Saudi Arabia and a few other states in the region to secure the stability of the Persian Gulf region.
According to Professor Juusola, another reflection of the change in power relations in the Middle East is that Syria was accepted back as a member of the Arab League in May.
The Arab League separated Syria more than ten years ago because the country’s president Bashar al-Assad harshly suppressed pro-democracy protests in 2011. This led to a bloody civil war in Syria.
Reinstating Syria’s membership has required Saudi Arabia’s blessing. That’s why it can be seen as a softening of the confrontation between Sunnis and Shias, says Professor Ashok Swain.
Syria’s return to membership in the Arab League can be considered a loss of prestige for the United States, the professors estimate. For years, Washington had pursued the line that al-Assad must be ousted from power. He is Russia’s most important ally in the Middle East.
Authoritarian countries are rising
In the new situation in the Middle East, the winners would seem to be authoritarian states such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and China.
The countries of the region need China because they want to reduce their dependence on the West. The war in Ukraine has made it visible that the interests of the countries in the Middle East differ from the goals of the United States and the European Union, Juusola estimates.
– The Middle East and above all the Persian Gulf region is now looking very strongly to Asia. This is visible in China’s role and will be visible in India’s role over time, says Juusola.
According to him, Iran’s international position has improved thanks to China.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have not condemned Russia’s attack on Ukraine, but they have sought to benefit from the war, Swain estimates.
For example, Iran has become stronger in relation to Russia, to which it has supplied at least Shahed suicide bombers.
The crown prince became a powerful figure
Saudi Arabia is one of the winners of the Ukrainian war. It has benefited from the rise in oil prices and the country’s economy is growing rapidly, Juusola estimates.
According to him, Saudi Arabia has gotten out of the awkward position it got into with the crown prince leading the country Muhammad bin Salman because of foreign policy mistakes.
Getting involved in the war in Yemen was a mistake on the part of the crown prince, states Juusola. Another mistake was the editor Jamal Khashoggi the brutal murder in Istanbul, which the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has accused bin Salman of authorizing.
The professors estimate that Saudi Arabia’s position has now clearly strengthened and at the same time Crown Prince bin Salman has become the most influential political actor in the Middle East.
According to Ashok Swain, the crown prince aims to make Saudi Arabia the political center of the Middle East and North Africa.
– He is a reformer who wants to emphasize the Saudis’ position as a politically independent actor, Juusola describes.
Traditionally, Saudi Arabia has been allied with the United States. The United States is still important to the Saudis, but the crown prince wants to diversify his country’s network of commercial and allied relations, says Juusola.
President of China Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia in December and met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The parties agreed on cooperation in, for example, the technology and energy sectors.
According to Juusola, Saudi Arabia needs investments from China for its ambitious reform projects. The countries also trade in arms and conduct military cooperation.
In June, among other things, Saudi Arabia signed an agreement worth more than 5 billion dollars with a Chinese company for the production of electric cars, says al-Jazeera.
Great importance in the US elections
The US continues to have a presence in the Middle East and compete with China for influence.
The United States is trying to influence, for example, the improvement of relations between Israel and the Arab countries. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would be ready to establish diplomatic relations with Israel on some kind of terms, says Juusola.
According to him, the opening of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a great victory for the president For Joe Biden in terms of the upcoming presidential elections.
The outcome of the US election will have a big impact on the situation in the Middle East, says Swain.
He believes that if Biden wins, the politics pursued by the United States will continue to be of the same type and the country’s influence in the region will continue to wane.
If the Republicans win and Donald Trump or his challenger the governor of Florida become president Ron DeSantisthe actions of the new administration are very difficult to predict, Swain states.
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