No miracle at the start of 2024. “There is not really any good news,” immediately warns Elodie Fremont, president of the real estate statistics commission of the Chambre des notaires du Grand Paris. “According to our forecasts, the trend is not going to be reversed, at least between now and February. We are going through a lasting crisis,” she continues.
In Ile-de-France, in the third quarter of 2023, the fall in the number of sales of old housing accelerated and reached 34% in one year, after a drop of 25% in the second quarter and 17% in the first quarter. , compared to the same periods in 2022. In addition, prices have fallen back below the 10,000 euros per square meter mark, with an average of 9,966 euros, a drop of 5.7% over one year and 7. 7% over two years.
L’Express takes stock of the four major trends for 2024.
A lasting decline in sales and prices
According to indicators put forward by the Chambre des notaires du Grand Paris, prices will continue to fall between now and February 2024 to reach an average of 9,630 euros. That’s a drop of 7.4% over one year. “It is the inner suburbs which suffer the most with a drop of 8.4% for apartments,” notes Elodie Fremont. “This is where it is more expensive and where the greatest capital gains have been recorded. However , today, there are very few transactions. What is sold is more of the order of constraint, linked to a divorce or a death.”
On the sales side, at half mast at the end of 2023, brokers estimate that the market risks remaining immobile this year again. “The demand for housing is very wait-and-see, because the conditions of access to credit remain a point of tension, even if we observe an improvement, comments Cécile Roquelaure, director of studies and communication at Empruntis. [D’autre part,] When the market experiences a downward trend in prices, future buyers prefer to wait to see if better opportunities can become available.”
Energy sieves in spades
Since the beginning of 2023, the implementation of the energy performance diagnosis (DPE) policy means that certain housing, some of those classified G, are now prohibited from renting, because they are considered “energy sieves”. The government has set itself the objective of banning the rental of all energy sieves in 2034, i.e. a ban on renting housing classified G by 2025, housing classified F by 2028, classified E by 2034.
To reduce the energy consumption of their rental properties, owners must undertake renovation work, however, many cannot afford the costs, even with substantial assistance from the State. As a result, these properties are found in large numbers on the real estate market. “In 2022, we saw, in Paris, an increase in sales of G-rated housing, in a very high proportion and a strong tension on prices. In other words, the more poorly rated the housing, the more it was sold and at a lower price “, reports the president of the real estate statistics commission of the Chambre des notaires du Grand Paris, Elodie Fremont.
Stable or even falling interest rates
This is one of the glimmers of hope to see the real estate market recover. “As far as loans are concerned, there are positive elements,” notes Cécile Roquelaure, of Empruntis. “We note the return of all the banking partners, many of whom no longer lend.” And interest rates appear to have stabilized, or even fallen slightly. “We observe a drop of 30 to 40 points [NDLR : de base, soit 0,3 ou 0,4 point]”, she adds. Rates are now more around 4.2% on average over twenty years, continues the expert, compared to 4.5% in November. “The increase is behind us, with a peak reached in December. Furthermore, banks have restored their margins and are more inclined to lend,” explains Cécile Roquelaure.
For 2024, the trend is therefore towards stability, with some changes depending on the banks’ commercial strategies. However, this does not necessarily augur an end to the crisis for the real estate sector. “This year, we will have to differentiate the credit market and that of real estate, warns Cécile Roquelaure. Other elements will be needed in real estate for the market to revive. There is in particular a supply problem. The construction of new housing could, for example, help.”
A new lease of life in view of the Olympics?
Will there be an Olympics effect on real estate prices in the host city? The phenomenon seems common. After the Tokyo Games, in 2021, the square meter increased by 22%, in London, in 2012, 24%, or even in Athens, in 2004, 14%. Although it is difficult to predict, Elodie Fremont nevertheless indicates that “the most present and most impactful actors in Ile-de-France are non-resident foreigners”. The notary specifies that, in 2023, the presence of non-resident foreigners on the market had increased.
“In September, they represented 11.2% of acquiring players over nine months. This is a record, whereas, in peak years, they represent between 8 and 9%.” And to conclude: “We can think that the Olympics will further encourage this trend.”
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