The Fitch rating agency maintains France’s rating at AA-, but with a negative outlook. This means that it plans to downgrade it in the future, she indicated this Friday, October 11 in a press release published late in the evening.
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The Minister of the Economy, Antoine Armand, indicated “ take note » of Fitch’s decision, while adding that “ the agency highlights the strength of our large and diverse economy, the effectiveness of our institutions and our history of macro-financial stability “. “ Fiscal policy risks have increased since our last review “, explains Fitch, whose previous note published on the France dates back to April.
“ This year’s projected budget slippage places France in a more unfavorable situation, and we now expect larger budget deficits, which will lead to a sharp increase in public debt to reach 118.5% of GDP by 2028 », writes Fitch in its press release. And while the government intends to reduce the French public deficit to 5% of GDP from 2025, then below 3% in 2029, the Fitch agency does not believe it: it has raised its public deficit forecasts for France in 2025 and 2026 “ at 5.4% of GDP “.
Fitch draws a rather harsh assessment of the probable evolution of French public finances
Eric Dor, director of economic studies at the IESEG management school
“ We do not expect the government to meet its revised medium-term deficit forecast to bring the deficit below 3% of GDP by 2029 “, she explains. “ Strong political fragmentation and a minority government complicate France’s ability to implement sustainable fiscal consolidation policies », Indicates the rating agency. For Antoine Armand, “ the draft budget for 2025 that we have just presented reflects the government’s determination to straighten out the trajectory of public finances and control debt “.
In June, France suffered a downgrade of its sovereign rating by S&P, going from the third “AA” notch to the fourth “AA-”. This was the first downgrade since 2013 by this rating agency. After Fitch, the rating agency Moody’s, which ranks France a notch above its peers, will give its diagnosis on the French economy on October 25, before S&P Global on November 29.
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