The Elysée is raising the possibility of a reshuffle at the start of the year, after the political storm caused by the passage of the immigration law. The future of the Prime Minister remains the great unknown.
Is a ministerial reshuffle on the agenda for the start of 2024? Several signs support the hypothesis. Starting with Emmanuel Macron’s decision to postpone the first council of ministers, scheduled for Wednesday January 3, to the following Wednesday. A choice for which those around the President of the Republic did not wish to “give the reason”. However, after an explosive end to 2023 for the presidential camp, with the passage of the very controversial immigration law, the Elysée called for “new momentum”. With a new government? And a new face at Matignon? “I thank you for your question but I think we will have the opportunity to come back to it soon,” replied Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, asked about her future during her visit to Guyana, according to Franceinfo.
In his wishes to the French, Emmanuel Macron wanted to “particularly thank the Prime Minister and her government”. A sentence that could just as easily be a goodbye. What future for ministers who have expressed doubts about the immigration law? A double threat even hangs over the Minister of Culture, Rima Abdul Malak, who had also mentioned a possible withdrawal of the Legion of Honor from Gérard Depardieu, indicted for rape and sexual assault… before Emmanuel Macron publicly disavowed it by blindly defending the actor.
Cabinet reshuffle: who could leave the government?
The reshuffle could involve the departure of Elisabeth Borne, Prime Minister. Three people are expected to take his place: Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of the Armed Forces, Bruno Le Maire, and Jean-Yves Le Drian, former Minister of Foreign Affairs. The objective, “a rapid change to go back on the offensive strongly”, Emmanuel Macron is said to have said to one of his ministers, according to the Journal du Dimanche. And for good reason, 59 deputies abstained or voted against the immigration law. Aurélien Rousseau, Minister of Health, did not hesitate to resign. And her former ministry is already at the scene of a scandal, because her replacement, Agnès Firmin Le Bodo, is the subject of an investigation in the “framework of her role as pharmacist”. She would be the target of “an investigation open since June 2023”, according to Mediapart, which specifies that she would have “received gifts without declaring them” from the Urgo laboratory.
Sylvie Retailleau, Minister of Higher Education and Research, was one of five ministers who announced that they would resign if the immigration law was adopted. On Wednesday December 20, she presented her resignation to Emmanuel Macron due to a “deep disagreement” on the measures concerning foreign students. On Thursday, those around her told AFP that her resignation had been refused and that the minister would remain “in post”. The President of the Republic and the head of government assured Sylvie Retailleau that the measures to which she fiercely opposes will be revised “if they were not censored by the Constitutional Council”.
What emerges is an undeniable impression of political exhaustion, that the government is navigating in a fog depending on circumstances. This kind of climate can quickly take on the appearance of the end of a reign. Emmanuel Macron, who reads the editorials and the newspapers, knows well that the derogatory criticisms are pouring out and that the opposition is outraged every week. Above all, the Head of State cannot continue his mandate as if there was no unease in his majority – affected by the turn taken by the immigration law. Obviously, he cannot continue with this government which seemed to endure, constantly compose or, conversely, multiply, the forceful attacks in front of Parliament. How to re-enthuse your political action?
A reshuffle around January 15?
The president undoubtedly does not have the ambition – disproportionate – to enthuse the French, but he certainly wants to give himself a new lease of life, set a new course, and this requires a change of team. A ministerial reshuffle would even already be in the cards, if we are to believe Europe 1, which is categorical on the subject: “A major reshuffle will take place around January 15”, announced in the media a close friend of the president. The private radio site even assures that there will be “changes of heads at all levels: from Matignon, to ministries, including a certain number of central administrations”. And “the president also intends to reshuffle part of the inner circle of his cabinet at the Élysée”. Enough to send a new message and build a new narrative a few months before the European elections.
According to a leading witness to the Borne-Macron relationship who spoke on Sunday in the columns of JDD, the executive couple would no longer really be on the same wavelength, and only a “change at Matignon, with a sort of new deal that shakes things up” could preserve the end of the five-year term. But who to replace Élisabeth Borne if the current Prime Minister?
For the Sunday newspaper, after pensions and immigration, the objective of full employment could be the political horizon envisaged by Emmanuel Macron to bounce back. And who better than a loyal man with a very political profile to take over the reins of Matignon? If the name of Bruno Le Maire is mentioned by certain observers, echoed by JDDfor the moment, however, everything remains only speculation.