“Just like in the First World War, we have reached a technological level that puts us in an impasse.” Five months after the launch of Kiev’s counter-offensive, the sentence of the chief of staff of the Ukrainian forces, Valery Zalouzhny, sounds almost like an admission of failure. In an interview and column published last week in the British weekly The Economistthe Ukrainian general delivered a rare diagnosis of the state of the front after more than a year and a half of fighting.
“There will probably be no magnificent and profound breakthrough,” assesses the senior officer, estimating, in view of the latest developments, that the conflict “is gradually evolving towards a war of position”. His explosive statements sparked multiple comments in the Ukrainian political class, and among experts, pushing President Zelensky to contradict his head of the armed forces three days later: “Everyone is tired. There are different opinions […] But it’s not a dead end.”
Since the recapture of the city of Kherson and the occupied territories located west of the Dnieper in November 2022, the front line, of more than 1000 kilometers, has changed little. “A form of status quo has been established: neither side is able to break through the enemy defenses,” notes General Nicolas Richoux, former commander of the 7th Armored Brigade. This is very similar to the situation on the front in France. during the First World War, between the end of 1914 and the beginning of 1918, with battles causing thousands of victims for very small territorial gains.”
Despite a counter-offensive carried out since the beginning of June to liberate its territories in the south and east of the country, the Ukrainian army has only made modest progress. If at the end of spring the Ukrainian general staff hoped to reach the towns of Melitopol or Berdiansk, in order to cut the Russian military system bordering the Sea of Azov in two, its forces did not manage to break through the solid defenses. erected by Moscow last winter, covering only a few hundred square kilometers in the area.
Ukraine: positions of military forces as of November 5
© / afp.com/Sabrina BLANCHARD, Sophie RAMIS, Nalini LEPETIT-CHELLA
“Tactical blocking”
Opposite, the Russians have not had any more success in their attempt to break through the Ukrainian defenses, despite large-scale offensives relaunched since October 9. In less than a month, they lost nearly 200 armored vehicles in their multiple assaults against the industrial town of Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region, according to figures relayed by theInstitute for the Study of War, a think tank based in Washington. But Moscow is not giving up. “The enemy is regrouping after the second unsuccessful wave of attacks. It is in the process of rebuilding its reserves, both in equipment and in personnel,” said the mayor of the city, Vitaly Barabach, on November 7.
“This war of position is the reflection of a tactical blockage, underlines Yohann Michel, researcher on defense issues at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The technologies but also the ways of fighting no longer really allow the different adversaries to win the enemy’s combat system and obtain significant territorial gains.”
As highlighted in his column by Valery Zalouzhny, a prolongation of this situation is not without danger for a Ukraine three times less populated and twenty-eight times less extensive than the Russian aggressor. “If the conflict freezes, this will give Russia time to reconstitute its forces and return to attack in a few years, explains General Richoux. In the long term, Moscow has more resources to restore its military potential, while Ukraine depends largely on our support.”
According to Western military officials cited in the American press, the Russian defense industry, on a war footing, would thus be on the verge of reaching a production of 2 million shells per year, or double its manufacturing capacities estimated before the conflict, to which would be added between 300,000 and 350,000 additional units recently delivered by North Korea. “Like the Russian army, the Ukrainians can also reconstitute their forces,” notes Yohann Michel. “But they will need us to increase our production of munitions and engineering equipment to be able to support them.” And this over time.
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