Fateful choice in Georgia – described as the most important since the fall of the Soviet Union • The expert: Could become a state loyal to Russia
The political climate in Georgia has been tumultuous lately – on Saturday everything will be brought to a head. For the past twelve years, the country has been ruled by the Georgian Dream party, which has moved ever closer to Russia.
Ahead of Saturday’s election, the opposition has managed to rally and they believe that they urgently need to change the country’s direction. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream claims that a win for the opposition would lead to a war with Russia.
– I would describe it as a fateful choice. It is probably the most important election in Georgia since the fall of the Soviet Union, says Hugo von Essen, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies.
The government has approached Russia
Earlier this year, the heavily criticized “foreign agent law” was hammered through. A similar law exists in Russia and is referred to by critics as the “Russian law”. It is also seen as a major step in the government’s approach to Russia.
– It is mainly during the last term that Georgian Dream has seriously started to move in a more repressive and authoritarian direction, says Hugo von Essen.
At the same time, the party has changed on a classic left-to-right scale. From previously going to the polls on a somewhat left-wing populist agenda, they have now moved to the right and forged stronger ties with right-wing populist parties in Europe.
– They have a very simple rhetoric based on either you vote for us or you vote for war, says von Essen.
The president has rallied the opposition
The Georgian opposition has long struggled to rally, but this spring President Salome Zourabichvili stepped forward and tried to unite the parties in an initiative. On Georgia’s Independence Day, she launched the Georgian Charter, an initiative to jointly defeat the government in the election.
– She has played an important role in successfully bringing the opposition together, almost everyone has signed her initiative. Simply explained, it means that together you must create a kind of technocratic government that will turn the country back on the right track and towards the EU again, says Hugo von Essen.
The Expert: Not a fair choice
The initiative consists of four different coalitions, which hope to get over the five percent barrier to parliament. No candidate for prime minister has yet been presented, although Zourabichvili promised to tell what a possible government will look like before the election.
– At the same time, you are fighting an enormous uphill and headwind. Georgian dream has enormous advantages in many different ways, partly financially, then they have great control over the electoral system and part of the media, says Hugo von Essen and adds:
– This election cannot be described as free and fair, but the opposition’s plan is to have a new election one year after the installation of the technocratic government.
Has a support of around 40 percent in the surveys
The independent opinion polls that have been conducted show that Georgian Dream currently has around 40 percent support.
– It is probably a reasonable number given their administrative resources. Many are certainly deceived by the narrative of choosing between the Georgian dream and war, says Hugo von Essen.
At the same time, there is a smaller pro-Russian party that could get over the five percent barrier to parliament, according to von Essen. Georgian analysts have also pointed out that Georgian Dream will automatically receive at least 20 to 25 percent.
– There are many government employees who, together with their families, are expected to vote for them due to fear and pressure.
At the same time, hundreds of thousands of Georgians live in poverty and live on state welfare.
– It is almost possible to calculate that they will automatically vote for Georgian Dream. You can say that they have beneficiaries rather than voters, says von Essen.
The expert: Could be a new Rose Revolution
In a statement together with several other ministers from the West, Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard (M) writes that they expect a free and fair election.
“Disinformation and inaccuracies are being spread about the EU and the West. At the same time, support for the EU is huge among the Georgian population,” writes Stenergard on X.
At the same time, it is not certain that the government would accept an election loss and voluntarily hand over power to the opposition if they won the election.
– It could lead to such large protests that we get a new Rose Revolution. I find it hard to see that they would just hand over power, what could happen is unclear. This may be the last chance and hope for Georgia.
The election in Georgia
Parliamentary elections in Georgia will take place on October 26, and voters will elect 150 members. The electoral system is proportional and a party needs at least five percent of the vote to enter parliament. The members are elected for a term of office of four years.
The polling stations are open from 08:00 in the morning until 20:00 in the evening. The first polling station surveys are expected to be presented a few hours later.
Source: Central Election Commission of Georgia, CEC