An electoral earthquake has occurred in the Netherlands, and the shockwaves could be felt throughout Europe. On the evening of Wednesday, November 22, the Dutch voted to elect the lower house and decide who will succeed Mark Rutte, in power since 2010. According to figures from an Ipsos exit poll, Geert’s Islamophobic far-right party Wilders comes well ahead in the legislative elections.
It indicates that the PVV (Freedom Party) won 35 seats out of 150, a victory considered very comfortable in a particularly fragmented lower house. Frans Timmermans’ left-green alliance is second with 25 seats, while the outgoing prime minister’s party, the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) won 24 seats.
The “Dutch Trump” at the head of the country?
For the moment even with these figures, Geert Wilders, the politician with the famous peroxided hair, is far from assured of becoming Prime Minister. Before the elections, the leaders of the three other major parties assured that they would not participate in a government led by the PVV. The PVV “can no longer be ignored”, he insisted, calling on the other parties to work together to form a coalition. The VVD candidate caused controversy when she declared herself ready to govern with the Geert Wilders party, before rejecting the idea of forming a government in which he would be Prime Minister.
Coming out of the polls, the popular Pieter Omtzigt, leader of the New Social Contract (NSC), who also takes a hard line on immigration, said he was “available” to lead the Netherlands. His party, created last summer, would have won 20 seats. He conceded the process would “not be easy”.
This victory could establish a new dynamic in the country. According to national observers, the other parties made a strategic error by focusing the disagreements on immigration, playing into the hands of the PVV. In July, Mark Rutte announced the fall of the government after “insurmountable” differences on immigration. A few days later, the man who spent 13 years at the head of the country announced his desire to leave politics.
Referendum to remain in the EU
If it is confirmed by the final results, Geert Wilders’ victory marks a sudden turn to the right which will be greeted with apprehension in Brussels: the PVV has notably promised a referendum on whether or not the Netherlands should remain in the European Union. Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban hailed “the winds of change” on X. And the leader of the French National Rally Marine Le Pen congratulated them “for their spectacular performance in the legislative elections which confirms the growing attachment to the defense of national identities”.
Not hesitating to call Moroccans “scum” or to propose caricature contests of the Prophet Mohammed, Geert Wilders has built his career by waging a battle against what he calls an “Islamic invasion” of the West. Neither his troubles with the law – which found him guilty of insulting Moroccans – nor the death threats against him – which have kept him under police protection since 2004 – have discouraged him.
More recently, he has toned down his populist rhetoric by focusing on other concerns of the Dutch, such as “whether they still have more money left in their wallets.” But the PVV manifesto retained its xenophobic tone. It proposes the restoration of Dutch border control, the detention and expulsion of illegal immigrants, the return of Syrian asylum seekers and the reintroduction of work permits for intra-EU workers.