No declaration of war will be heard from the Russian president today, experts estimate. The mobilization is too great a risk for Putin, as it would expose the events in Ukraine to the Russians as well.
9.5. 09:48 • Updated May 9th. 09:48
Russia is celebrating Victory Day today, the defeat of Nazi Germany in the “Great Patriotic War” of 1941-1945. Experts predict that the president Vladimir Putin will draw parallels between World War II and the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine.
– Let’s put as if signs of equality that the fight against Nazism continues. In this way, legitimacy is created for the military operation. It is certainly barely audible to the western eyes and ears, says the leading researcher Blue Flower Island About the Foreign Policy Institute.
Director of Research at the Alexander Institute Markku Kangaspuron according to Russian families, Putin is also waiting for answers.
– Putin has to justify why the country’s hospitals are full of wounded. Why have so many families lost their sons, husbands, fathers? Despite all the censorship, the other faces of the war are slowly emerging, Kangaspuro says.
“A declaration of war would be a risk to Putin”
With the declaration of war, Russia could start mobilizing and recruit reservists for the armed forces. Experts who have visited the morning broadcasts consider the launch to be unlikely.
– At the moment, life has continued as normal in big cities. What now Western companies have withdrawn. Most of the dead soldiers have been from small villages in southern Russia. Their voices are hardly heard in the Russian debate anyway, Sinikukka Saari says and continues:
– A declaration of war would be a major political risk for Russia’s leadership and Putin’s favor. War would be present in a different way in Russian life. It could not be forgotten, as many Russians have tried their best,
“Putin’s ousting will solve nothing”
During the Russian invasion war, rumors have circulated about President Putin’s power and status.
Kangaspuro and Saari remind that the comments may be an influence of opinion aimed at undermining the credibility of the Russian rulers. However, therein lies the seed of truth.
– I have no doubt that there would be criticism of the war in the insider. It is clear that well-informed parties know that this did not go as imagined, Kangaspuro says.
The ousting of President Putin would not solve the situation, at least not immediately, but could plunge the country into greater chaos.
– It is difficult to see that it would lead to the liberation of Russia and the coming of democracy. Vice versa. The line could be tighter and more chaotic, Saari says.
– It doesn’t matter if Putin is ousted or left out. Through the chaos, even the strongest faction could rise to power. The Security Council is a key player and there are hard-line guys making decisions, Kangaspuro estimates.