Olli Ruohomäki, Visiting Leading Expert of the Foreign Policy Institute, says that the Syrian coast was the only potential port for Russia.
10:08•Updated 11:07
Syrian president Bashar al-Assad the fall of the regime is a big loss for Russia and Iran as well, says the leading expert of the Foreign Policy Institute Olli Ruohomäki.
Russia moved its naval ships from its base in Syria earlier this week.
– The Tartus naval base was the only potential place from which the Russians could operate in the Mediterranean, says Ruohomäki.
According to him, Iran’s connections to the Mediterranean Sea, which supported Assad, will also be cut off with the change of regime.
– This is a very hard blow to Iran, which has tried to create an axis of resistance from Tehran through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon. Now it is partially broken.
Russia has had three frigates, a submarine and two supply vessels in Tartus. In addition, it also has the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia in Syria.
The Ukrainian intelligence service told the message service at the beginning of the week In Telegramthat the Russian troops had started to flee from Damascus.
According to the intelligence service, the commander of the Russian special forces in Syria had been invited to Moscow to explain to the leaders why his subordinates suffered losses and why the military equipment in Aleppo fell into the hands of the rebels.
The 54-year dynasty collapsed
The now defunct dynasty of the Al-Assad family began in 1970, when Hafez al-Assad seized power. Bashar son continued the family reign since 2000. Now everything finally collapsed in just a week.
According to Ruohomäki, in terms of schedule, the events in Syria progressed in the same way as the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan three years ago.
– Now there is information leaking out that the army units have given up their weapons one after another. This is what often happens in such situations when the army is corrupt and there is no motivation, says Ruohomäki.
A woman who lived in Damascus also tells that the rebels were able to advance surprisingly quickly.
What will happen next in Syria?
At least until now, the opposition in Syria has been anything but united. According to Ruohomäki, over the years dozens of different factions have fought against the Assad regime, and partly with each other, in Syria.
Military commander of the Islamist extremist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which leads the insurgency Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has forbidden his fighters to go to government offices because they “are under the control of the former prime minister”.
Prime Minister of Syria Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali has said that he is willing to negotiate a change of power and is ready to ensure the continuation of the administration.
According to Ruohomäki, the future of Syria is currently completely in the hands of HTS.
– Jolani has tried to brand his organization as a viable management option. He has even said that he also wants to cooperate in the fight against terrorism. It’s a pretty interesting pattern.
According to Ruohomäki, Syria is in a sensitive and fragile state after more than a decade of civil war.
– It is not very easy to assemble a whole state entity from Syria. There are so many different groups out there.
Jolani has said that religious and ethnic minorities will be protected.
– Whether he is a man of his word remains to be seen, says Ruohomäki.
What is the fate of Assad?
Ruohomäki says that Assad’s era is now over. There is no way back.
– If he has fled to, for example, Iran or Russia, then he will stay there. He no longer has any chance to gather troops and organize a possible counter-revolution.
Even though the rebels did not catch Assad, according to Ruohomäki, this sends a clear message to the dictators of the world “that this can also happen”.
– Of course, the message would have been clearer if HTS had caught him and hung him on the nearest lamp post. The matter would have been settled.