According to Hannu Juusola, professor of Middle East studies, both Israel and Hezbollah have reasons to be satisfied with the truce.
17:17•Updated 17:38
The truce between Israel and Hezbollah, an extremist organization operating in Lebanon, began at four in the morning.
The preservation of peace is by no means guaranteed, but the chances of success are good, says the professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Helsinki Hannu Juusola Radio 1’s Ykkösaamu.
According to the cease-fire agreement signed on Tuesday evening, Hezbollah undertakes to withdraw its forces to the north, further from the Israeli border. Israeli forces are also scheduled to gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon within two months.
Juusola considers the two-month transition period exceptionally long. However, he sees that both parties to the conflict have the will to move forward.
As part of the agreement, the parties leave the border area between the two countries under the control of the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers. According to Juusola, a new monitoring mechanism is also being developed for the region, whose task is to ensure the preservation of peace.
– Here we are developing a system in which the United States and France play a very active role in ensuring that Hezbollah does not return to them [Etelä-Libanonin] areas.
According to Juusola, Israel must be able to trust that Hezbollah’s forces and Hezbollah’s weapons will no longer come close to the country’s border. According to him, it is the most essential of all for the preservation of peace.
Israel achieved some of its goals
According to Juusola, both Israel and Hezbollah have their own reasons for being satisfied with the ceasefire.
– Israel has achieved some of its goals. Hizbullah initially proposed that there would be peace on the border between Israel and Lebanon only when the conflict in Gaza ends.
Hezbollah has been forced to back down in this regard, which is a victory for Israel.
At the same time, Israel has succeeded in destroying Hezbollah’s leadership, structures and fighters to a significant extent, Juusola states.
For now, however, it is unclear whether Israeli civilians will dare to return to the border area in the coming weeks and in the future.
– This is the essential test that shows how well Israel has actually succeeded, says Juusola.
A truce is important for Hezbollah’s survival
Israel launched a ground attack and heavy bombing in Lebanon almost two months ago. According to Juusola, Hezbollah has been communicating its willingness to get out of the conflict for some time, and Iran has also reportedly put pressure on Hezbollah.
According to Juusola, Hezbollah, which suffered heavy losses, ensured its own survival with the cease-fire.
– It has far too much to lose, because it also wants to remain a political actor in Lebanon.
According to the current ceasefire agreement, it also seems that the organization is allowed to keep at least some of its weapons.
– Here, as you know, the aim is not to genuinely disarm Hezbollah. This is also why Hezbollah is willing to settle for these conditions.
Could peace also reach Gaza?
The agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has raised questions about whether a ceasefire could also be reached in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas, the extremist organization that governs Gaza, said early Wednesday that it was ready for a cease-fire and a prisoner exchange with Israel.
Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu was harsher than Hamas in his speech on Tuesday evening.
– We will destroy Hamas, return the hostages and make sure that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel, Netanyahu stated.
According to Netanyahu, the war will not end until Israel has achieved its goals.
An agreement between Israel and Hamas still seems like a distant idea at the moment.
Director of the Finnish Middle East Institute Susanna Dahlgren assessed on Wednesday on Radio Suomen’s day that the Lebanese ceasefire is still an important and promising step for ending the Gaza war as well.