The stock market year 2023 started strongly, but in the last week the rise has stopped. Last Thursday there was also a new interest rate increase and Riksbank governor Erik Thedéen flagged that the danger of inflation has not yet passed.
– We are in a situation between hope and despair all the time. When it looks like it will be better than expected, there is immediately a lot of hope. But it is a difficult situation with high inflation and high interest rates, says Molly Guggenheimer, equity strategist at Danske bank.
At the same time, the Swedish Riksbank’s interest rate increases do not play a very big role for the stock market, according to Molly Guggenheimer. Instead, it is mainly the US central bank Fed’s various interest rate announcements that have an effect.
– The American interest rate controls most things. This is because we live in a globalized world.
Great uncertainty
When the Riksbank raised the policy rate to 3.0 on Thursday, Erik Thedeén described a very uncertain environment. Even Molly Guggenheimer sees a fragile spring ahead, both in terms of the stock market and the rest of the economic situation.
– It is difficult to find a balance in this situation. Either we enter some sort of overheating environment, where inflation is too high but corporate profits are good. The alternative is that inflation falls, but that demand is so low that companies’ profits fall. But my forecast is that the stock market can continue up, or at least sideways for a while longer. But it is too early to answer how 2023 ends.
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