On Monday morning, a ship loaded with grain left the port of Odessa in Ukraine and 26,000 tons of corn is now on its way to Lebanon. But it is still too early to say whether the ship will reach its final destination or not, says Oscar Jonsson.
– It looks like that so far, but it is a bit early to say, he says.
During Tuesday afternoon, the ship will anchor in Istanbul, where it will undergo an inspection by Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the UN.
– Then Russia has a formal chance to stop it, says Oscar Jonsson.
Does not rule out sabotage
On the same day that the agreement, negotiated by the UN and Turkey, was concluded, Russia attacked the port of Odessa with robot attacks that, according to Ukraine, knocked out important port infrastructure. Jonsson does not rule out that similar sabotage may take place in the future.
– You show goodwill by trying to find a solution, but at the same time you can destroy this later on. You open up for a little export and export as much as you can yourself and then you do things, for example like these robot attacks.
The agreement is only valid for four months, after which a new one must be negotiated. Although 26,000 tons of grain have now left Ukraine, approximately 20,000 million tons remain, waiting to be exported.
“A test balloon”
According to Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, another 16 ships are “waiting for their turn”. Decisive for how many ships will depart is, among other things, how much it will cost to insure the loads, says Jonsson.
– This a test balloon. The insurance market waits and sees. It may be that one to ten ships leave and then you break. Inspections can be one such occasion when you put a stop to it.
Does this affect the situation between Ukraine and Russia?
– No, I don’t think it does. Not until Ukrainian exports amount to such a large scale that it provides a significant economic contribution.