A month ago, President Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive against Russia – but they have big problems.
– On the one hand, it is a bit early to know, but we can still say that so far it has gone much worse than what Ukraine had hoped for, explains Oscar Jonsson, doctor of warfare.
Above all, Ukraine’s difficulties are due to the fact that Russia has had nine months to prepare and, during that time, has entrenched itself well along the entire front line.
– In addition, the Ukrainian forces mainly consist of people who have not been soldiers before this, says Oscar Jonsson.
Not trying to take territory
Ukraine has tried to break through on a fairly wide front and the important thing is above all to get through the defense lines. The counter-offensive is thus more of an exhaustion of the Russian offensive than a manoeuvre, explains Jonsson.
– When Russia has to move forces to meet the counteroffensive, they are less prepared and more vulnerable and then you can get through, he says.
Artillery ammunition – a huge problem
Despite aid packages and weapons being continuously delivered to Ukraine, ammunition is running out. According to Oscar Jonsson, this has a simple explanation – the production conditions in the West cannot possibly meet the demand that exists.
– Before this war, the US produced 180,000 artillery shells a year and Russia used ten million in the first year alone. The only reason this counter-offensive can be carried out is that artillery shells have been borrowed from South Korea and the US has raided its warehouses in Israel, he explains.
According to Jonsson, the lack of ammunition is the biggest problem right now. That’s why the US has said it should go ahead with sending so-called cluster bombs to Ukraine – something that has been criticized because of how much it harms civilians. However, Jonsson believes that Ukraine should be allowed to decide whether cluster bombs are to be used on their territory or not.
– It is a difficult question, but there are really no other conventional ways to ensure that Ukraine has artillery shells. And Russia has been using it since day one. Those who are against cluster bombs are welcome to deliver a credible theory on how to make Ukraine win in some other way, he says.
Russia’s advantage in airspace
Another reason for Ukraine’s disadvantage is their limited air defense. Throughout the autumn and winter, Russia’s strategy was to shell Ukrainian cities and it is difficult to try to attack in air superiority.
– I think Ukraine has enough gunpowder in the tank to continue for up to two more months. But if there is no large-scale collapse in the Russian lines, you either have to bet everything or conserve the forces, Jonsson explains.
Despite many setbacks for Ukraine, you can see a certain movement around Bachmut, he says.