President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi sought a new approach to the war by changing the commander of the armed forces, according to the experts interviewed by .
On Thursday, Zelenskyi appointed the commander of the ground forces as the new commander To Oleksandr Syrskyi. He replaces a very popular one Valerii To Zalužny.
Zelenskyi is looking for the best possible war strategy for a situation where the army’s resources are low, and it is good to tie the new strategy to the new commander, he thinks Volodymyr Fesenko.
Fesenko is a political analyst and director of the Ukrainian think tank Penta Center for Political Studies.
– At a certain stage of the war – when there are difficulties – the political leadership changes the commander of the armed forces in order to update the war strategy and situation, says Fesenko.
According to him, the relationship between Zelenskyi and Zalužnyi has been tense recently. According to Fesenko, the president’s decision showed that he wants to keep the strings in his hands. On the other hand, the decision showed that Zelenskyi dares to make unpopular decisions
Also program director of the Institute for Foreign Policy Arkady Moshes believes that with the change of commander, new ideas and strategic competence have been sought. It can have positive effects when the war is prolonged.
However, according to the researcher, there is also a less flattering reason for the change.
– It’s about personal envy. There is no doubt about it. Zelenskyi must have felt uncomfortable in the shadow of such a popular commander of the armed forces, says Moshes.
He refers to polls, according to which Zalužnyi is significantly more popular than Zelensky among Ukrainians.
Big political risk
– If Zelenskyi had thought about politics, it would have been better for him to keep Zalužnyi, Fesenko says.
Fesenko justifies his view that if Zalužnyi completely leaves the army and enters politics, he will likely become influential in politics – and a rival for the president.
Moshes, for his part, emphasizes that Zalužnyi was already Zelenskyi’s political rival.
– Transferring Zalužnyi to other positions does not end the political competition, but postpones it to a later date. After the war, Zalužnyi will probably run for office in the elections, he says.
From Zelenskyi’s point of view, a lot now depends on Ukraine’s luck in the war, Moshes estimates.
– If the Ukrainian army starts to do worse than before, Zelenskyi will bear the sole responsibility for the failures.
That’s why it’s a big risk.
‘s journalist Justas Stasevskij told the people of Kyiv about the change of commander on Friday, you can watch the comments in this video.
The dismissal of the popular commander has sparked protests on Ukrainian social media. And Zelenskyi’s popularity has already been declining.
The help of the West is more decisive than the commander
Moshes believes that the change of commander will not have major political effects in Ukraine, at least immediately.
According to him, there is some kind of moment of instability in the leadership of the Ukrainian state, but it may not last long.
– Everything depends on the achievements or failures of the new commander of the armed forces.
In the video below, Moshes evaluates the significance of the fact that the new commander was born and trained in Soviet Russia.
Fesenko estimates that there may be reforms in the military leadership at the front.
According to him, President Zelenskyi wants the battles to be led by soldiers who have combat experience themselves. Zelenskyi has assigned this task to the Syrskys.
Fesenko does not believe in big changes on the battlefields, even if Zelenskyi is looking for a new war strategy.
– Unfortunately, the situation at the front does not depend on the name of the commander. It is affected by the lack of ammunition, he says.
Fesenko points to waning US aid and Europe’s difficulty ramping up its munitions production. In addition, Russia has received ammunition from North Korea.