Ukraine’s counterattack has now lasted about two weeks. Ukraine has announced that it has liberated a total of eight villages on the southern front in the Zaporizhia and Donetsk regions. However, it seems that Russia has succeeded in slowing Ukraine’s progress to an extremely slow level.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi admits too In an interview with the BBC progression to be slower than desired. As the reason, he cites the mines laid by Russia, which are in an area of 200 thousand square kilometers.
Expert of John Helin according to the slow progress, there are three reasons related to Russia. In addition, Ukraine has probably had to change its offensive tactics.
1. Russian artillery superiority
Ukraine has announced that over the course of two weeks, it has inflicted exceptionally high daily artillery losses on Russia. For example, today Ukraine has said that it has destroyed more than thirty Russian cannons in one day and up to 300 cannons and mortars in two weeks.
According to the expert, however, one of Russia’s means of preventing Ukraine’s rapid advance has been precisely its artillery superiority.
– Ukraine has not been able to paralyze the Russian artillery. Ukraine’s counter-artillery does not seem to have succeeded as hoped, says Helin in a phone interview to .
Helin monitors the frontline situation in Ukraine from open sources and maintains a situational map of Ukraine’s frontlines together with his team.
According to Helin, Russian war tactics are largely based on the use of artillery. The dictator of the Soviet Union Joseph Stalin called artillery “the god of war”, and the use of artillery is still central to Russian warfare.
According to Helin, Ukraine’s announcements about Russian equipment losses should be treated with caution. However, they tell about what the armed forces of Ukraine are focusing on.
– It has been talked about throughout the war that Russia has clear artillery superiority. Ukraine, on the other hand, should be able to create artillery superiority in some area. It has not been able to do that, says Helin.
According to Helin, Ukraine now needs more artillery and ammunition to get the upper hand over Russian artillery. As such, Ukrainian artillery has a longer range and tries to strike as accurately as possible.
– We have not seen the kind of mass use of fire by the Ukrainians that would be required to break such barriers. According to the reports coming from the front, the cooperation between the artillery and the infantry has not worked in the best possible way either, says Helin.
2. Minefields
Russia’s minefields have proven diabolical. A video of Ukrainian tanks and other vehicles stopped in minefields has been published on social media.
– Russian minefields have proven to be more difficult than expected, says Helin.
According to him, the most important thing for Ukraine would be to get the demining operation in order.
– Ukraine should get more clearing units and training for destroying minefields. Special forces should be created for clearing, says Helin.
3. “Alligators” or Russian helicopters
Russia has been able to slow down Ukraine’s counterattack with its air force as well. In particular, the use of KA-52 “Alligator” helicopters has created challenges for Ukraine.
– Helicopters stand out because of their mobility. They launch anti-tank missiles from kilometers away, and have inflicted losses on the Ukrainians quite effectively, says Helin.
In addition to these, the Russians have also used flying bombs and drones to prevent Ukraine’s counterattack in the region.
– Russia’s air superiority can be seen in the region. Ukraine’s problem with the use of air defense on the frontline is highlighted at the moment, says Helin.
According to Helin, this is possibly because Ukraine does not have enough short-range anti-aircraft systems, and therefore has not brought systems close to the front lines in an effort to conserve them.
Ukraine changed attack tactics?
Ukraine last announced that it had liberated the village of Pjatyhatky in Zaporizhia this week. According to social media reports, Russia tried to retake the village with disastrous results.
Another major Ukrainian success was the blowing up of a large Russian ammunition depot in Rykove, Kherson region near Crimea. The ammunition depot was located far from the front lines. War bloggers estimate that the attack was made with long-range Storm Shadow missiles, which Ukraine has received at least from Britain.
According to Helin, an attack on Russian weapons depots far from the front line of the war could cause the Russians a problem similar to that caused by the Himars rocket launcher system. After the Ukrainians got the Himars system, it forced Russia to move its important munitions stores further from the front line of the war, and helped stop Russian offensive activity.
– If Ukraine were able to carry out similar attacks, it would significantly complicate Russia’s operations. Russia could have to move larger weapons depots further from the front, and that would complicate the ammunition supply chain, says Helin.
In general, however, the intensity of the fighting has decreased over the past week. According to Helin, Ukraine has advanced only a few hundred meters. Part of the reason for this has been bad weather, but Ukraine is also possibly taking an operational break.
– Ukraine has changed its attack tactics. Now you don’t attack as hard ahead of the vehicles, but now the attack takes place ahead of the infantry. The method of attack is more systematic, says Helin.
Ukraine still keeps a large part of its offensive power under wraps. For example, most of the brigades trained in the west of Ukraine have not yet received their baptism of fire.
– This is a bit of a “cat and mouse game”. Ukraine does not want to commit the majority of its troops to combat yet. Russia, on the other hand, is trying with its actions to make Ukraine reveal its cards and put all its forces into play, says Helin.
According to Helin, based on the first two weeks, Russia can be said to have succeeded in slowing down Ukraine’s counterattack. However, according to him, there is absolutely no way to talk about any catastrophe for Ukraine.
– We could cautiously say that Russia has been successful so far. However, there is still a lot of summer left. You should also be prepared for the fact that Ukraine will somehow surprise you, says Helin.