After the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, there has been speculation as to what the next step will be in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. During Monday evening, information came that Israel has launched a limited ground offensive in southern Lebanon, something Hezbollah’s deputy general secretary believes the militia will be able to handle.
– Naim Qassem tried to present it as if Hezbollah is very ready for anything – that it has plans that can be continued. But it is possible to raise question marks around it, says Aron Lund, Middle East analyst at the total defense research institute, FOI.
Hezbollah’s ability to defend itself from Israel’s attacks largely depends on how extensive the ground offensive itself will be, explains Aron Lund. The strategy may vary depending on the force Israel chooses to enter Lebanon with. It could, for example, involve either holding the positions for the first few days or waiting Israel out with guerilla warfare.
– It is not about occupying all of Lebanon, but probably targeting areas in the south. They want to force Hezbollah north and establish a kind of security zone, so that nothing like October 7 can happen, says Aron Lund about Israel’s plans and adds:
– It could also be that you just go in and try to pick out known bunker networks or take certain heights that give a better insight into the area.
“Needs firm Iranian backing”
In the event of an Israeli advance in Lebanon, questions are also raised about how Hezbollah’s ally and the major power in the area, Iran, might react. A condemnation is likely to be expected, but whether it will be anything more than that remains to be seen.
– Hezbollah probably needs very firm Iranian support if this negative spiral they have found themselves in is to be broken. But it is possible that this is so important to Iran that they are willing to take more risks than usual.
If Iran meddles and again attacks Israel with robot and drone attacks, it could wake up the US, which in turn could put pressure on Israel.
– But it’s probably not really enough in this situation if you want to stop Israel in Lebanon. It’s been going so well for them and they’re on a roll now.
– They have wanted to get rid of Hezbollah for a long time, but it has not previously been seen as a realistic possibility, adds Aron Lund.
Not the end for Hezbollah
Israel has successfully managed to knock out weapons stockpiles in Syria, carried out pager attacks and managed to kill a number of high-ranking leaders in airstrikes. But even if Israel’s escalation completely pulled the rug out for the Shia militia, Aron Lund does not believe that Hezbollah’s repressed position is the end of the organization.
– The group will not disappear. Israel will not occupy all of Lebanon. Then there are always areas in which Hezbollah can continue to live.
Hezbollah has a history of and was built up as an underground resistance movement against Israel for 20 years in the 80s and 90s. The group can be decimated, but not wiped out.
– Hezbollah will not be the same type of group as in recent years – carrying out missions for Iran and building up this rocket arsenal that is safe in Lebanon. It doesn’t go the same way, but you can certainly keep fighting.