On Tuesday, there were reports of a series of explosions at a Russian military air base in Crimea. One person died and five were injured in the explosions, according to the Ministry of Health of the Crimean Peninsula. According to Russia, they were not caused by an attack but by an accident in an ammunition depot.
“The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine does not know the cause of the fire, but would like to remind once again of the safety rules and the prohibition that exists when it comes to smoking in places you do not know,” the government of Ukraine mockingly replied in a comment.
“Ukraine has reason to refuse”
A source in Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday to The New York Times that Ukrainian forces were behind the explosions – and videos on social media show two separate explosions happening at exactly the same time.
– If it is now true, it is hard to think that this was an accident, says Ilmari Käihkö, docent in military science at the Norwegian Defense Academy, about the video clips.
Even if Ukraine were behind the explosions, Käihkö does not believe that there will be an official recognition. In the past, Russia has threatened Ukraine if they were to attack Crimea and Ukraine has reason to deny the attack because they do not want to escalate the war, he says.
– At the same time, the Russians also know, if Ukraine is behind this, that the Ukrainians have this ability and must react accordingly.
Political and military effects
On Wednesday, Ukraine’s air force said nine Russian warplanes were destroyed in the explosions. According to Russia, no warplanes have been destroyed. Ilmari Kaihkö points out that it is important to criticize sources in war: Ukraine has reasons to exaggerate and Russia to deny. If the information is correct, it is serious for Russia, he says.
– For Ukraine, the military effect will be to try to reduce the Russian ability to continue attacking Ukraine. But then there is also a larger, political, effect: showing the Russians that they have the ability to influence Russian targets far behind the front lines. It’s something they haven’t shown before.
On Wednesday, the day after the explosion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a televised speech that the war in Ukraine began with Crimea – and must end with its liberation.
– Crimea belongs to Ukraine, and we will never abandon it, Zelenskyy said in the speech.