On the night of Saturday, Ukraine’s new chief of defense, Oleksandr Syrskyi, announced that the army was withdrawing from Avdijivka.
– From a Russian perspective, this means that if you take the city, Russia has achieved its first military success since Bachmut fell in May, Elfving says and continues:
– This time it is also the Russian military forces that take the city and not as in the Bachmut Wagner group.
The Russian successes in Avdijivka are also timely in relation to the Russian presidential election in a month, Elfving points out.
No capacity for major offensive
The Ukrainian army is now expected to withdraw to prepared defensive positions and neither side is judged to have the capacity for any major offensive.
– What we will see in the future are continued local attacks and counter-attacks.
Ukraine’s defense chief has said they will return to Avdijivka. According to Elfving, it is unlikely.
– I see it more as wishful thinking.
Ammunition shortage in Ukraine
According to Elfving, setbacks in Avdijivka have obvious links to the lack of financial support from the West. Since last year, the US has been arguing about an aid package for Ukraine, but the proposal has been blocked by Congress.
– As the American support has not been forthcoming, it has led to a shortage of ammunition on the Ukrainian side. Today, Ukraine fires only about 2,000 artillery shells. It is significantly more on the Russian side.
Five questions about the fighting in Avdijivka