the European elections revive the war of the left

6 mins

A ” total break with what LFI does today »: these few words from Raphaël Glucksmann during his interview on Sunday June 2 on BFM TV were enough to rekindle a fire that was just waiting to be fueled.

On social networks, the rebels immediately bombarded the head of the PS Place Publique list: “ for once, the socialists are not waiting for the elections to betray their promises. This is progress » snaps MP Clémence Guetté. His colleague Paul Vannier adds: “ voting Glucksmann means doing the business of Le Pen and Macron. »

Because the PS candidate Place Publique this time goes further than what he has professed since the start of the campaign: an antinomic vision of Europe between his political camp and LFI. Confident of his probable good score on Sunday June 9, he believes that the vote “ will cut the lines “, enters on one side “his course”, attachment to Europe, to democracy, ” to peaceful debate ” and the ” excesses, slander and fake news » of the Insoumis.

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Battle of ragpickers on the left

A new episode in a campaign which sometimes looked more like a fight between socialists, ecologists, rebels and communists. The latter thus strongly criticized LFI’s strategy of putting the question of Gaza at the forefront of their campaign. “ LFI defiles and tramples the Palestinian struggle for electoral purposes », said the head of the PCF list Léon Deffontaines at the end of April. “ Communists betray the Palestinian people » immediately replied the rebellious muse of the Gazan cause Rima Hassan, seventh on the list led by Manon Aubry.

Manon Aubry was herself sharply criticized by her environmentalist counterpart Marie Toussaint for having called on voters sensitive to the climate crisis to instead choose her movement. Of the ” friends who wish you well even go so far as to claim to save environmentalists by asking you not to vote » for us, regretted the Green MEP during her meeting in Aubervilliers on Sunday June 2.

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The return of the irreconcilable lefts?

So many spats which revive the idea of ​​“irreconcilable lefts”, theorized by Manuel Valls. The former socialist Prime Minister issued this sentence in 2015 when the left was wondering about the advisability of a common primary to nominate a single candidate. An idea that fizzled out since ultimately the Socialist Party and the Insoumis clashed in 2017, paving the way for the rise of LFI.

So, are the left really “irreconcilable”? “ What is certain is that continuing with Jean-Luc Mélenchon is completely impossible », Estimates an experienced socialist senator. This opinion is shared by large sections of the PS, but also ecologists and communists. However, there are many of them, particularly on the Green side, who consider a joint candidacy necessary during the next presidential election, to avoid leaving room for the far-right. An environmentalist mayor thus believes “ that we need a common program and a common candidacy of the humanist arc. »

But this objective faces multiple obstacles: in addition to the resentments that have accumulated over the years – socialists nostalgic for their past hegemony, rebellious people considering themselves betrayed by those to whom they had reached out during the 2022 legislative elections, burned communists by the experience of the alliance with LFI between 2012 and 2017, environmentalists disgusted by the Hollande five-year term – the results of the Europeans risk weighing in a possible political recomposition.

Still a lot of electoral uncertainty

If the voting intention surveys promise a double-digit score for the PS Place Publique list, Raphaël Glucksmann’s team is looking at the competition with concern. For two weeks, his score has stopped progressing, stuck between 13 and 14%. On the contrary, the Insoumise list is climbing little by little, reaching 9% in certain surveys. “ If they finish at 10, it’s a disaster », Judges a close friend of Raphaël Glucksmann. Forgotten in fact “the clear line”, it would be two roughly equivalent camps facing each other.

In any case, the major political maneuvers will begin on the morning of June 10. They have even already started, like this declaration from the head of socialist deputies Boris Vallaud this Tuesday, June 4 on TF1: “ There will be a need for a union of the left [pour la présidentielle 2027], will it be in the geography of Nupes? Probably not. »

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Internal settlements approaching

It is indeed difficult to predict what a new alliance on the left could look like, because the lines could shift within the member parties of the ex-Nupes. The position of the boss of environmentalists, Marine Tondelier, risks being very weakened in the event of a bad score in the European elections, which the polls seem to promise. Calls for the rapid organization of a congress have already been launched.

Same thing among the socialists, but for different reasons: the good result promised to the Glucksmann list is giving wings to the right wing of the party, which had rebelled against the alliance with LFI within the Nupes. Former president François Hollande no longer hides his desire to return to the forefront, and in the entourage of first secretary Olivier Faure, the defections have begun. The PS could therefore return to a more social-democratic line during the congress to be organized before mid-2025.

Many eyes are in any case turned towards the “frondeurs” of LFI, François Ruffin, Clémentine Autain, Alexis Corbière or Raquel Garrido. Because the reconstruction of an alternative alliance could depend on them. If they secede definitively, LFI would be isolated. But if they stay, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s movement could attract the most left wing of environmentalists and a fraction of the Communist Party.

Two camps would then face each other with a view to the 2027 presidential election. Not necessarily a bad thing, we judge on both the socialist side and the Insoumis side. “ It is better to have several applications in the first round to create momentum in the second », Analyzes the socialist senator cited above. A vision very close to that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon for whom left-wing voters will always vote in favor of the alternative to the Macron camp or the far right: bets which risk leaving the left, environmentalists and their voters far behind power.

Also listen:European elections: is there a war of the left?