The EU only reaches 20 percent of the grenade target

The EU says 2.5 million war-defining artillery shells a year will roll out of our continent’s factories by the end of 2025.

The forecast from the factory floor?

500,000 grenades. 20 percent of the target. Max.

– I don’t know where they are going to get the gunpowder, says Nammo manager Björn Andersson.

Ukraine needsr 250,000 grenades in caliber 155 millimeters – every month.

To meet the need, the EU’s production is on the rise.

Annual capacity is to reach 1.7 million shells this year and 2.5 million by the end of next year.

The EU’s now-departed Interior Commissioner Thierry Breton has it claimed.

One of the companies that will do so is Nordic-owned Nammo, which casts grenades in Värmland’s Karlskoga.

The factory is now being expanded there, with money from the EU and Sweden.

In about two years, the capacity will be tripled.

Nevertheless, Nammo’s business development manager Björn Andersson sighs.

He does not believe that the EU boss’s promises are realistic.

– If I were to be crass, I could imagine that maybe there will be factories that can make that many grenades. But I don’t think we’ll get hold of the explosive, says Björn Andersson.

It is about TNT, the explosive that the workers in Karlskoga fill the grenades with.

TNT is produced in a single plant in Europe: Nitrochem in Poland.

– It is simple mathematics. They manufacture approximately 12,000 tons of explosives a year. Half of that is sold to the United States. That leaves 6,000 tonnes a year in Europe. If you use every single gram for grenades, you can get maybe 500,000. More realistically, we’re talking about 300,000–400,000, says Björn Andersson.

– 6,000 tonnes is basically what we would need ourselves.

Nammo is now vacuuming the entire world in search of explosives and gunpowder, another scarce commodity.

South Korea. Australia. India. Vietnam.

– It is not completely secure of supply, and there are big question marks about whether you can get end-user certificates for Ukraine from the last two countries. I don’t think we will get it, says Björn Andersson.

For Ukraine, this is a nightmare message.

Artillery is probably the single most important component of the battlefield, absolutely crucial in both attack and defense.

Russia now produces nearly 3 million artillery shells a year, and receives an additional 2.8 million shells a year from North Koreaaccording to Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service.

At the same time, the EU missed the target of sending 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine in the year to March 2024.

It was half – 524,000 grenades.

And the promised production increase is delayed.

– If we end up with 300,000-400,000 grenades a year, Russia will produce it in two months, says Björn Andersson.

– If you add the USA, 600,000, then Russia works it out in half a year. We have a strong deficit in production capacity.

There are initiatives to expand the production of gunpowder and explosives. But Björn Andersson does not see any new deliveries to his factories until 2028 at the earliest.

– Firstly, you must find machines. They are not on the shelf anywhere today, but they need to be built. Then you have to find someone who runs the machines and knows how to manufacture TNT. Then you have to get an environmental permit for the rather dirty process, and it won’t be easy.

– From 2028 onwards, we will have a completely different opportunity to buy raw materials. But right now there are fights over many of the raw materials we need.

Throwing money at the problem won’t help either. At least not in the short term.

– If the initiative had been taken today to build five TNT factories in Europe, we would have had five times as much TNT production, but it would still have taken until 2028. You can achieve a lot with money, but it doesn’t happen overnight still.

– I think this will be resolved in 2028-2029. The difficult years will be 2025, 2026 and 2027.

In Karlskoga, preparatory work for the expansion has begun. New holes for machines have been taken up in the walls, ventilation and pre-production have been reviewed. The major work will be done in the summer of 2025, while Nammo’s factories in Norway and Finland can only increase in the summer of 2026, with full effect in 2027.

– After the summer of 2025, we will have an increase in production in Karlskoga. But it is based on us getting hold of explosives, says Björn Andersson.

FACT European grenade production

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