According to preliminary data, the number of migrants trying different routes to Europe has risen to its highest level since 2015.
Every day at least dozens of asylum seekers have come from the Russian border to Finland and at the same time to the EU during the past couple of weeks.
However, the eastern route has so far been the quietest of the migration routes leading to Europe. Those coming from the Middle East, Africa and Asia have been trying to reach Europe mostly across the Mediterranean or through Turkey.
The pressure is still on Europe’s other external borders. The European border security agency Frontex has recorded more than 300,000 unauthorized crossings by the end of October this year.
The record year was 2015. That’s when more than a million migrants entered Europe by land and sea without proper permits. The number of visitors is also large this year.
There has been a noticeable change in migrant routes to Europe in a year. There are now almost a quarter fewer people coming from the Western Balkans than last year, while the number of people crossing the Mediterranean has increased by almost 70 percent by the end of October.
You can see the change in the graphic below:
The EU gives money, Libya, Tunisia and Turkey stop the arrivals
Most of the arrivals are on the western route via Tunisia and Libya across the Mediterranean. The number of arrivals has increased despite the fact that Tunisia and Libya have made agreements with the EU to stop arrivals south of the Mediterranean.
The EU has offered Tunisia, for example, one billion euros if it prevents crossing attempts or takes migrants back.
The EU has supported Libya with EUR 700 million since 2015 in connection with migration. Support has been given, for example, to the Libyan coast guard, which picks up people in distress from the sea.
In turn, the EU agreed with Turkey in 2015 that Turkey would stop, for example, those trying to reach the Greek islands and take them back from the Greek side.
For every returned Syrian, the EU would accept one Syrian asylum seeker waiting on the Turkish side. Financial support for Turkey is around six billion euros.
However, Turkey’s role in the refugee issue is complex. Turkey supports the Syrian army and armed groups in operations against the Kurds in northeastern and northern Syria and is thus itself creating pressure for people to leave Syria.
In this situation, the EU or Finland hardly can or wants to negotiate this type of agreement with Russia. The EU has imposed numerous sanctions on Russia.
The situation on the eastern border of Finland also differs from the southern migration routes in that the border authorities estimate that Russia is actively guiding the migrants towards Finland. For example, the Minister of the Interior Mari Rantanen assesses that the actors of a foreign state have a role in the arrival of those who crossed the border illegally to Finland.
Unlike many users of the Mediterranean route, the people who came through Finland’s eastern border came through official border checkpoints.
Those fleeing the Russian invasion increased European migration
Migration is multifaceted. Europe’s movement increases for another winter as the attack on Ukraine continues. Eight million Ukrainians have fled the fighting to various European countries. The European Asylum Agency saysthat, for example, in October 2022, more than 100,000 asylum applications were submitted in the EU region.
Italy and Greece, Europe’s major recipient countries, aim to share the burden with other EU countries as well.
We leave our country for many reasons. People are looking for economic and political security, a better life.
However, one feature is common to all routes. People smugglers make money by taking migrants for a ride.
The Guardian magazine says, that in 2022, only a third of the approximately 15,000 human trafficking-related cases heard in court resulted in a conviction. Other stories fell through due to the lack of a screen. According to The Guardian, the profits of the lucrative branch of the criminal industry are up to 150 billion euros per year.