It was only a matter of time before the US would respond to the Houthi movement’s attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Acts of war are easily experienced diffusely. Whose ship is it, in which waters and who is really affected? But shipping on the Red Sea is an absolutely crucial link for international trade, market prices and needs.
In other words, a bunch of rockets aimed at ships in the Red Sea can affect us all the way to the kitchen table. The Houthis, who are sometimes carelessly called the bare-bones army, know this – but they should not be underestimated.
The rocket attacks have been increased
The Iran-backed Houthis quickly came out in support of Hamas after their October 7 attack on Israel. Shortly after Israel launched its counterattack against Gaza – where up to 24,000 people have now died, many of them children – the first reports came of rockets hitting the tourist resort of Eilat. Turns out they came all the way from Yemen. It was not a one-time event, but the rockets have not only continued, but also expanded to the Red Sea.
The Houthis have said they attack ships connected to Israel, or to help Israel, but other shipping has also been hit. It has become increasingly clear that as long as there is no ceasefire in Gaza, the attacks from Yemen will continue. It is also something that the Houthis have received a lot of cheering for, not least domestically, but also from both Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Expect a response from the Houthis
And despite the US persistently saying it does not want the Israel-Hamas war to grow in the region, it struck 16 different locations in Yemen last night. At this stage, we do not know how much military capacity they have deployed or what opportunities the Houthis have to respond.
But the movement or their friends will answer. They have survived many years of war against the Saudi-backed Yemeni side and will not stop after a night of aerial attacks.
No country wins by going to war
The fact is that the US has now entered militarily into the tidal waves of the Israel-Hamas war and may bring more. But for now, the escalation is balancing on a fragile thread. The US does not bring Iran into the rhetoric and it stays out of Israel-Palestine, Saudi Arabia calls for caution rather than taking sides, and Iran uses its usual threatening slur, nothing more, nothing less. No country would really gain by entering the war.
But other Iranian-backed militias, for example in Iraq or Syria, are likely to attack American targets there in retaliation. The biggest risk is that Hezbollah and Israel completely open a front and that it goes from a low-intensity escalation to a bombastic one.