Pleasant surprise: the price of gas has fallen by more than 13% on the wholesale markets. Will you get a discount?
The price of gas on the Amsterdam stock exchange is one of the most observed prices in Europe. Because it is this which makes it possible to predict what gas consumers will pay for their consumption. And this is good news that awaits individuals. Between November 12 and December 10, a megawatt hour of gas fell from €45 to €39, a drop of more than 13%. And, above all, gas returned to the price at which it was sold in July 2021, a few months before Russia invaded Ukraine.
This drop in gas prices comes at a time when the European Union’s gas stocks are full, despite the arrival of cold weather. In October and November, gas prices remained relatively stable around 45 euros per megawatt hour, with a peak at the beginning of November at 48 euros.
John Kemp, the gas market specialist at Reuters, considers that the fall in gas prices in recent months is enough to declare that the energy crisis is over. He points out that Europe’s gas reserves are at record levels, while gas consumption in major EU countries fell by 13% in the first nine months of this year, compared to average of the ten years preceding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It also notes that energy prices have fallen significantly since their peak in August 2022, when gas cost 223 euros per megawatt hour.
Although prices have fallen significantly, Kemp emphasizes that prices are still slightly above crisis level. For example, between 2015 and 2019, the price of a megawatt hour was 23 euros and between 2010 and 2014, 32 euros. Kemp predicts prices will continue to fall next year.
What does this imply for the consumer? Will your bill go down immediately? No because the gas suppliers have already pre-purchased the gas that you will consume in the coming months. So they don’t benefit from the price drop and… neither do you. However, we recommend that you start following promotional offers from suppliers. Indeed, with the fall in prices it is likely that new offers will come onto the market.
It could then be very interesting to change supplier to benefit from a better price. When will this be possible? Prices should be best at the end of winter and the very beginning of spring. By looking at the offers in May you could have some good surprises. The milder the winter, the more surplus gas will be sold off to the first to benefit from the promotions.