the end of the “plausible” pandemic according to WHO Europe

the end of the plausible pandemic according to WHO Europe

COVID. The Omicron variant continues to infect more than 300,000 people a day but it could bring us closer to the end of the epidemic according to WHO Europe. At the hospital the tension is still palpable despite a continuous drop in the number of admissions.

  • Could the Omicron variant be the last phase of the Covid-19 pandemic in France? The director of WHO Europe, Hans Kulge, estimated on January 23 that the mutation could infect 60% of Europeans by March and bring the continent closer to “the end of the epidemic”. “Once the Omicron wave subsides, there will be overall immunity for a few weeks and months, either because of the vaccine or because people will be immune because of the infection,” the doctor added.
  • The situation in hospitals in France continues to improve. For ten days, a reflux of patients admitted to critical care has been observed. If the situation calms down in hospitals, the number of new Covid-19 contaminations remains high with 301,614 new cases recorded on January 23. The detailed report can be found in our article devoted to the figures of the Covid in France.
  • The vaccination pass comes into force in France this Monday, January 24. The Constitutional Council validated most of the bill for the vaccine pass, Friday, January 21, censoring however its use at the entrance to political meetings.

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08:14 – The “plausible” end of the epidemic after the Omicron wave

Omicron weighs heavily on the epidemic with record levels of contamination, yet it could be the last bastion before the end of the epidemic. On Sunday January 23, WHO Europe director Hans Kluge told AFP: “It is plausible that the region is approaching an end to the pandemic”. With its increased contagion, the mutation could infect 60% of Europeans by March, so “once the Omicron wave subsides, there will be global immunity for a few weeks and months, either because of the vaccine or because people will be immune due to infection, and also a drop due to seasonality.” Covid-19 will not disappear according to the doctor, but it could be “back towards the end of the year” and become a seasonal infection.

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Here is the latest assessment of the coronavirus in France according to data updated daily by Public Health France and available on Data.gouv. Figures as of January 23, 2022:

  • 128,629 deaths in total (Ehpad included), i.e. 115 more
  • 101,330 deaths in hospital, 115 more
  • 27,299 deaths in nursing homes (not updated)
  • 28,838 people currently hospitalized, i.e. 323 more
  • 3,760 people currently in intensive care, i.e. 14 more
  • 1,094 new hospital admissions (-900) and 143 in intensive care (-71)
  • 496,840 people discharged from hospital, i.e. 634 more
  • Test positivity rate: 30.10%, i.e. 0.96 points more
  • Incidence rate: 3,598.30 cases/100,000, i.e. 109.36 points more

According to last epidemiological point from Public Health France (SPF), published Thursday January 20, “the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 remained very intense, with a less marked increase in the number of cases and still significant hospital pressure” in week 02 (January 10-16 ). The incidence rate was over 3,000 positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

  • In mainland France, the incidence rate corrected increases in week 02 and goes to 3,098 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (vs 2,854 in S01, i.e. +9%). The incidence rate exceeded 2,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants among those under 60 and remained highest among 10-19 year olds (5,506, +20%). It has increased the most among 0-9 year olds (4,012, +56%) and among those aged 90 and over (1,034, +20%). The screening rate was also highest among children: 20,633 among 10-19 year olds (-8%) and 19,082 among 0-9 year olds (-2%). The screening rate was down in all age groups. All ages combined, it was 12,766/100,000 (-11%). As for the positivity rate, it continued to increase with almost one in four tests positive in S02 (24.3%, +4.4 points).
  • The number of new cases diagnosed per day also increases sharply. In S02, there were 2,079,348 new confirmed positive cases, compared to 1,915,487 in S01. The effective reproduction rate of the virus stood at 1.27. The test positivity rate was also up (24.3%, vs 19.1% in S01, i.e. +4.4 points).
  • The number of new hospitalizations of Covid-19 patients decreased very slightly in S02. Indicators by date of admission reported 13,787 new hospitalizations (compared to 13,787, or -1%) and 1,844 new admissions to critical care units (compared to 12,280 in S01, or -19%).
  • The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is the majority in France, identified in 96% of tests by sequencing.
  • Vaccination against Covid-19 is still progressing: as of January 18, 2022, 78.0% of the total population had received a complete primary vaccination. 61.2% of those aged 18 and over had received a booster dose (72.2% among those eligible) and 78.8% among those aged 65 and over (87.6% among those eligible).

Follow the evolution of the coronavirus in your municipality thanks to the map below. Click on a department to display the list of municipalities. Also find all the details on this mapping and the complete point by city and by department in our article on the Covid map in France.

Click on a department to consult the list of its cities.

Since mid-October 2020, Public Health France has been communicating incidence data (number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants) at municipal level. The figures are at this stage communicated according to a scale (10, 20, 50, 150, 250, 500, 1000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The data is expressed over a sliding week, which means that it is calculated on a D-day from tests carried out between 3 and 9 days previously. To access information relating to the coronavirus in your municipality, enter its name in the search engine or click on its department in the map below.

As a reminder, the incidence rate corresponds to the number of new cases of Covid-19 over a period of one week, compared to the total population of a territory (country, region, department or municipality). This indicator is generally expressed as the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The screening rate gives the number of people having carried out a screening test for the coronavirus out of the total number of inhabitants, during the period. It is also most often expressed per 100,000 inhabitants. Finally, the test positivity rate gives the percentage of positive tests for the coronavirus, compared to the total number of tests carried out over the period.

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