The conflict between Israel and Iran is influenced by the Middle East’s more than 45-year-long dispute over the status of the Palestinians and the existence of the state of Israel.
Over the decades, the dispute has been colored by Iran and Israel’s neighboring countries, extremist organizations active in the Middle East, and major powers.
Senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Toni Alaranta does not believe that the hatred between Israel and Iran will turn into a major war in the Middle East in the near future.
– I think this perhaps says more about the fact that both want to show that they can match each other’s tricks, Alaranta says.
In this story, the expert opens up about the complex alliance relations in the Middle East.
Who is Israel on good terms with?
In order to secure its position in the Middle East, Israel seeks security cooperation with the United States and the Sunni powers of the Middle East.
Israel seeks to secure its existence, which it believes is threatened by Iran. Israel’s primary ally is the United States, which supports the country militarily.
Formally, Israel is only allied with the United States. Unofficially, at least Egypt and Jordan can be counted as Israel’s allies. The countries have signed a peace treaty with Israel and learned to live in Israel’s neighborhood, even though Israel does not comply with UN resolutions on the issue of the Palestinian territories.
– Of course, that doesn’t mean that the relations between the countries are easy, but it can be said that there is no tendency to conflict between the countries, says Alaranta.
Sunni-majority countries in the Middle East, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, perceive Shia-majority Iran as a threat, so they can also be counted as Israel’s partners.
The countries fear that Iran, which is larger in population and resources than the oil countries of the Persian Gulf, is trying to spread its revolution to Sunni-majority countries.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia are seeking neutral relations with Israel in order to share in US security guarantees.
And who is Iran’s ally?
Iran enjoys the support of various Islamist extremist organizations in Syria and the Middle East. Iran and its allies are united by the Palestinian issue and hatred of the United States.
Both Israeli Jews and Palestinian Muslims rely on religious views to justify their claims to the land, which is currently under Israeli control.
The majority of Palestinians are Sunni Muslims. Sunni-majority countries in the Middle East, such as Syria and Jordan, support diplomacy and a two-state model to resolve the dispute, but do not actively promote the issue.
– In the Middle East, only Shia-majority Iran and Hezbollah, active in Lebanon, actively promote armed resistance in the Palestinian issue. For decades, Iran has supported Hamas, which Israel is currently fighting in Gaza. In addition, Iran is supported by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are financed by Iran, Alaranta explains.
The government of Sunni-majority Syria also supports Iran.
The allied relationship between Iran and Iraq’s armed groups is based on the struggle against the US presence. The cooperation between Russia and Iran, on the other hand, is based on a common hatred against Western countries.
Why is Saudi Arabia’s position in the Middle East conflict important?
Saudi Arabia’s relations have recently been at odds with both Iran and Israel.
Before the October 7 attack by Hamas, Israel and Saudi Arabia were normalizing their relations.
Iran perceived the rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a threat and feared that Saudi Arabia would support Israel’s point of view on the Palestinian issue.
Currently, Saudi Arabia seeks neutral relations with Israel, although it and Israel do not have diplomatic relations.
– Saudi Arabia’s interests would be to increase trade and energy cooperation with Israel, Alaranta says
In March 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran reconciled their years-long feud and restored mutual diplomatic relations.
One of the reasons for the agreement was the desire to find a way out of the Yemeni civil war. The Saudis have supported the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels fighting the Iranian government in the war that began in 2014. In Syria, the situation is the opposite. Iran supports the government and Saudi Arabia supports the rebel groups.
Why are the United States, China and Russia involved in the Middle East?
The United States, China and Russia are interested in the Middle East because control of the oil-rich region has determined who has the upper hand in world power relations.
The United States has traditionally supported Sunni-majority Arab countries. Russia, on the other hand, shares common interests with Iran
Last year, for the first time, China assumed the role of a significant diplomatic gambler in the Middle East.
– China is just learning the role of a great power in the Middle East. So far, it has largely focused on securing oil shipments. China needs crude oil from the Middle East for at least 50 years for its own industry, so it will be interesting to see what kind of role China will develop in the Middle East, says Alaranta.
Russia had a strong presence in the Middle East in 2015 during the war in Syria, but recently its presence has decreased due to the fighting in Ukraine.
Instability in the Middle East benefits Russia because it allows it to create more chaos in the West. At the same time, Russia is trying to maintain diplomatic relations with Israel.
How has the international community reacted to the situation in the Middle East
The international community reacts differently to the actions of Israel and Iran in the Middle East.
The UN, EU countries, the United States, Britain, Mexico, Canada and Japan condemned Iran’s attack last weekend.
So far, at least, Western countries have not condemned Israel’s recent counterattack.
The difference in attitudes towards Iran and Israel can be seen, for example, in how the UN has handled Israel’s activities in Gaza.
– Israel’s actions are understood to a great extent, even though it is straight out of the Syrian regime’s playbook. Despite that, violence against Israeli civilians has not been condemned as a war crime in the UN, as was the case during the Syrian war, says Alaranta.
Treating Israel with silk gloves in the UN has been facilitated by the position of the United States in the Security Council.
The treatment of Iran has been tougher in the UN. On Thursday, EU leaders advocated additional sanctions on Iran due to last weekend’s attacks.