On Tuesday, the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack against Russian forces south of the city of Bahmut. The Ukrainians made a three-kilometer-wide breakthrough into the Russian front and pushed them eastward for almost three kilometers.
Finnish military experts believe that Ukraine took advantage of the momentary weakness of the Russians on that front. Director of the Wagner mercenary company Yevgeny Prigozhin had told a little earlier that the present Russian armed forces had escaped from the front.
Head of the Department of Military Art at the National Defense University Pekka Turunen thinks that this may have really been the case, when an empty space had formed on the front. Ukraine took advantage of this.
Aleksanteri Institute Visiting researcher Ilmari Käihkö reminds that Prigozhin has harshly criticized the Russian armed forces for not supplying the Wagner fighters with enough ammunition. This too could have affected the fighting ability of the Russians, even though a unit of the Russian regular army was responsible for the front line in question.
A weak Russian brigade against a top unit
On the Russian side, the 72nd Motorized Infantry Brigade was responsible for the front line.
Research institute Institute for the Study of War (you move to another service) says that the unit was founded in the autumn of last year. It became part of the 3rd Army Corps, which was established in the Russian army at the same time. The 72nd Brigade consisted mainly of volunteer fighters.
According to ISW, the 3rd Army Corps and probably also the 72nd Brigade were scattered when Ukraine counterattacked in the Kharkiv region in September 2022. According to Ukrainian sources, the brigade suffered more losses when the Russians retreated from the west bank of the Dnieper, says ISW.
Although the brigade had been replenished, ISW believes that it was severely undermanned on the front south of Bahmut.
The 3rd Assault Brigade was assigned to the attack from the Ukrainians. It was founded on the basis of the former Azov volunteer battalion, and the brigade commander is the former commander of the Azov battalion, also known as a far-right politician Andriy Biletsky.
– Azov was considered by many to be an elite unit. It had very motivated, even ideological fighters. After 2014, they had their own financial patterns, i.e. their level of equipment was better than the Ukrainian army. In addition, they are also looking for lessons from NATO in a completely different way than the Ukrainian army, says Ilmari Käihkö.
Ukraine took advantage of the opportunity
The Ukrainian armed forces probably knew that the Russians had left the front, and the 72nd Brigade was not in a good position. They wanted to make good use of the opportunity, says Pekka Turunen.
– Ukraine thought it best to act and attack the worn-out brigade and recapture the areas it had lost.
Finnish experts do not have more detailed information about the battle itself. Käihkö thinks that maybe the fight wasn’t very fierce.
– The opponent has probably fled and was followed until resistance was encountered.
Turunen reminds that the Ukrainian troops apparently had to cross the canal that cuts through the area. It would be interesting to know how this happened, he reflects.
Käihkö thinks that the battle did not necessarily cause many casualties to either side.
– If the opponent runs away, there won’t be too many losses, not necessarily for the opponent either.
Ukrainian newspaper Pravda (you will switch to another service) says the Russians lost at least 64 men killed and several infantry fighting vehicles. Information cannot be verified from unbiased sources.
No big deal
Neither expert considers the penetration of Russian positions achieved by Ukraine to be very significant in a military sense.
There is no effect on the overall situation of the war, and the situation regarding Bahmut is also unchanged. For example, the progress of Ukraine does not yet pose a blockade threat to the Russian forces.
Turunen emphasizes that this kind of military action has a mental effect on the soldiers above all. The Ukrainians will gain more faith in their own actions, when the lost ground is regained little by little. For the Russians, the effect is the opposite. When morale declines, so does performance.
Käihkö states that it is significant for Ukraine that Russia has not taken over the city of Bahmut, even though they tried to do so by Victory Day. Victory Day now had to be celebrated without a victory, Käihkö states.
He believes that Ukraine will mount a larger counterattack elsewhere. Although Russia has devoted enormous resources to the occupation of Bahmut and Ukraine to its defense, the importance of Bahmut may decrease with the future attack of Ukraine.