According to Ylen Meteorologist Kerttu Kotakorvi, in the next el Niño year, the global average temperature will rise and, for example, rain will increase in North and South America.
17:58•Updated 18:00
The El Niño weather phenomenon is predicted to become dominant later this year, researchers estimate in the British newspaper The Guardian (you will switch to another service).
According to the researchers, the phenomenon would increase the air temperature worldwide, produce unprecedented heat waves or worsen extreme weather conditions in different parts of the world.
With that, global warming would very likely exceed 1.5 degrees, the paper writes.
Due to climate change, the effects of El Niño are getting stronger and at the same time the effects of climate change itself are increasing. When you put these two things together, we will probably see unprecedented heat waves during the next El Niño, the professor estimates Adam Scaife From the British Meteorological Institute to the magazine.
In an interview with Brittilehti, the researchers have varying estimates of the strength of the phenomenon and when the change would take place.
This is a recurring phenomenon
El Niño is a recurring phenomenon that naturally works in the world’s atmosphere and affects the weather. El Niño typically occurs every 2-7 years. It changes wind, temperature, rain and pressure conditions, affecting weather conditions in different parts of the globe.
During El Niño, large areas of the Pacific Ocean are warmer than average, and it has a warming effect on weather temperatures, while its counterpart, la niña, has a cooling effect.
Ylen Meteorologin Kerttu Kotakorven according to the phenomenon has the greatest effect near the equator, especially in South America and Southeast Asia and in general around the Pacific Ocean.
– During the phenomenon, the sea water is warmer near the equator in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, while the water is colder than usual in Oceania. The wind is stronger from west to east and pushes warm surface water towards South America. This has effects on the weather worldwide, says ‘s meteorologist Kerttu Kotakorpi.
La niña has dominated the last few years
Kotakorpi points out that last year was very warm on average on Earth, although the la niña phenomenon has been dominant for the past two years.
– When the next El Niño year comes, the Earth’s average temperature will certainly rise significantly, because it has already risen anyway. It makes global warming really visible.
According to Kotakorven, the phenomenon also affects in other ways. For example, rainfall is increasing in North and South America, and countries in the western Pacific, such as Australia, are drier.
– It depends on the combination of the underlying climate change and El Niño variation. The changes will become more extreme. There is a drought in some places and when that phase turns, the rains can be really abundant, says Kotakorpi.
For example, based on modeling by the Australian Meteorological Department, the coming El Niño period would mean a very hot and dry season for the country. The eastern part of Africa and the southern part of the United States, which have recently suffered from drought, may receive heavy rains and floods, the British newspaper writes.
According to Kotakorven, the phenomenon mainly has reflex effects on Europe. For example, winter rains may increase in the Mediterranean and it could be colder further north.
– But there is no clear evidence of this, but the effects can be seen especially in the Pacific Ocean, South and North America, Oceania, Australia and to some extent affects as far as India and also the coast of Africa.