El Niño eclipsed last year’s heat record. Even if it fades by summer, this year is likely to be hot as well.
Last year was the warmest in the history of measurements. It is mainly due to human activities, but it was also affected by the El Niño phenomenon.
News site Axios according to El Niño is about to recede, and at the end of July-August its place will be taken again by La Niña. Axios bases its data on NOAA forecasts from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
It’s about the biggest natural weather variations on the planet. La Niña cools and El Niño warms the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean.
El Niño usually lasts about a year. It recurs “regularly irregularly” every 2 to 7 years.
Researcher at the Department of Meteorology Mika Rantanen estimates that the highest peak of this El Niño has already been experienced. It is not yet visible in the temperatures, but usually the highest global average temperatures are observed after the peak of the phenomenon subsides.
– I would assume that the effects of the waning of El Niño will be visible in global average temperatures only at the end of the year or next year. This year can be as warm or warmer than last year, says Rantanen.
La Niña also affects the Atlantic
Although La Niña affects the Pacific Ocean, it has far-reaching effects that weaken the winds on the Atlantic side. Hurricanes are likely to form in the North Atlantic.
– Hurricanes like it to be calm. Then their vertical structure can develop undisturbed, Rantanen says.
Hurricanes usually hit the East Coast of the United States, the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico, and Bermuda. If the hurricane season is strong, it can be seen in Finland and other parts of Northern Europe as strong autumn storms.
La Niña has traditionally cooled temperatures globally. Recently, however, it has been noticed that even La Niña years can be very warm. The heat is just distributed differently than during El Niño.
Even if temperatures cool down, it would only have a momentary effect on climate change.
– The long-term trend is due to human activity and increased greenhouse emissions. El Niño and La Niña are just such noise around there, says Rantanen.
El Niño has been known for centuries. Fishermen in Peru and Ecuador noticed that every few years the winds calmed down and the surface waters of the sea warmed up. It happened at Christmas time, and the phenomenon got the Spanish name El Niño, the boy child.
The reciprocal phenomenon began to be called La Niña, the girl child.