Turkey’s devastating earthquake complicates the organization of elections in the country.
This is the opinion of the researchers interviewed by and, according to news reports, also the Turkish authorities.
Parliamentary and presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Turkey in May. The election has been described as exceptionally tight, even by the president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s for the future.
15 percent of Turks, i.e. more than 13 million people, live in the earthquake zone, where a state of emergency will prevail for at least the next three months.
– Right now it seems that holding elections on May 14 would be extremely difficult, says a Turkish official who remains anonymous to the news agency Reuters.
Also the director of the Foreign Policy Institute, who recently visited Turkey Mika Aaltola believes the earthquakes, which have killed more than 21,000 people, could move Turkey’s elections.
The earthquake relief and rescue work in Turkey has been criticized for being slow. However, Aaltola states that his trip to Ankara showed more deep sadness.
– Such situations are often not internal political issues, they are national emergencies. It doesn’t get politicized very quickly, Aaltola says in ‘s morning.
– There will be no arguments immediately. It rises above politics. It might then influence politics, perhaps postpone elections.
“The earthquake poses risks for Erdogan”
A journalist specializing in Turkey who was interviewed on Ylen radio’s Ykkösaamu Tom Kankkonen estimates that the earthquake and its treatment will become a significant political theme in Turkey.
– It now takes all the attention and poses risks for President Erdoğan, he says.
According to Kankkonen, Erdoğan has created an image of himself as a strong leader. And now, in the eyes of many, it seems that when a terrible disaster strikes, the state will not survive this.
According to Kankkonen, there is now a rare amount of criticism towards Erdoğan in Turkey.
– If an image is created that there has been a failure in management, the management is responsible for this, Kankkonen estimates.
The amnesty of companies and households that violated building regulations under Erdoğan’s leadership before the 2018 elections also has an effect in the background.
The Turkish authorities, and through it also the country’s leadership, are now being criticized for the fact that the country’s buildings did not withstand the earthquake.
A senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute interviewed in Ykkösaamu Toni Alaranta estimated that the disaster could increase support for the opposition.
– Yes, it increases dividing lines in Turkey, he says.
According to opinion polls released just before the earthquake, Erdoğan’s approval rating was lower than ever before the election.
The postponement of the elections can make Finland’s path to NATO more difficult
Several experts are of the opinion that Turkey’s delay in ratifying Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO memberships is also part of the country’s domestic political game.
It is believed that Erdoğan will use his decisive position in the process to assert his own power.
That is why the government in Finland has also communicated that it is best to wait until after the country’s elections for Turkey.
Could the postponement of the elections affect Finland and Sweden’s NATO process?
– It’s hard to say in this situation, says Kankkonen in the morning of .
He is currently on the ground in Turkey, and points out that despite the earthquake, the administration in the capital Ankara is functioning.
– There is the parliament in action, the president in action. That is, if there is a will, surely this matter (NATO membership) could be taken care of as well.
– I think that all the existing variables that exist there have not moved anywhere as a result of this earthquake, Kankkonen states, referring to Turkey’s views on Finland and Sweden’s NATO issue.
On the other hand, if the elections are postponed and Erdoğan’s support starts to fall, he may want to use the NATO process as a lever to increase his own support.
According to Aaltola, it remains to be seen whether aid coming through the EU and NATO can have an impact on the NATO issue.
– In Turkey, we are grateful for the help we get there. Sweden, as the EU presidency, organizes aid to Turkey and the aid is brought through NATO.
– But how it connects to compassion and a relaxing spirit remains to be seen.
In the video below, reporter Tom Kankkonen tells about the current situation in the earthquake area.