The Finance Minister could have made a phone call. But things are so bad between the ministries of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition (Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals) that the Liberal Christian Lindner preferred to communicate his call for budgetary discipline in writing. Addressed to the Minister of Defense, a Social Democrat (SPD), and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, a Green, the letter from the “austerity advocate” demanded that the necessary funds be found outside the budget for any delivery of additional equipment to Ukraine. As a result, this August 5 missive ended up in the press and once again cast doubt on Germany’s support for its military support for kyiv.
The 2025 budget, which was just finalized on Friday, August 16, after months of difficult negotiations, currently only provides for 4 billion euros in aid, half as much as in 2024. Olaf Scholz, who has always maintained an ambiguous position on Ukraine by maintaining the profile of a “peace chancellor”, was quick to reassure his international allies. Only the “sources of financing” are changing, not the level of aid, he assured. The latter relies on the exploitation of Russian assets frozen by the Twenty-Seven, made possible by a decision of the European Union (EU).
“Germany will not relax its support for Ukraine,” Olaf Scholz promised on August 21 during his visit to the former Soviet republic of Moldova, neighboring Ukraine, without assuaging Western fears. The reduction in aid by Berlin is “very worrying,” warned the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrel, on August 23.
Christian Lindner himself felt obliged to backtrack to limit the diplomatic damage, saying he was ready to “examine additional aid on a case-by-case basis”. But by casting doubt on the solidarity of Germany, the leading arms donor after the United States, the Finance Minister is once again manoeuvring for domestic political reasons. The regional elections on 1 September in East Germany are shaping up to be catastrophic for the liberal party he chairs, the FPD. While the far right could experience a historic triumph by winning more than 30% of the vote, the liberals will probably stagnate at around 2%. Currently, they no longer even appear in the poll charts.
Populist positions that discredit the government
In the Scholz government, the liberals have always been seen as the ones who keep things in perspective, constantly looking for new provocations to avoid being forgotten. In the federal elections, which take place in a year, they are threatened with disappearing from the political arena for good. So anything goes to attract the attention of undecided voters, to the point of getting closer to the ideas defended by the extreme right and the populist left (nearly half of the electorate in the East), such as stopping arms deliveries to kyiv. Reduction of the minimum solidarity allowance, return of cars to city centres, maintenance of unlimited speed on motorways, abolition of the Ministry of Cooperation… So many populist positions that discredit the entire government.
A few weeks before the American elections, which could herald the return of Donald Trump to power and the end of Washington’s aid to kyiv, these new disagreements within the Scholz government obviously play into Putin’s hands. Without Germany, kyiv is hampering its chances of military success. “We must not sacrifice Ukraine’s destiny on the altar of the debt brake,” warned Michael Roth, the social-democrat chairman of the Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee, who is preparing to leave politics.
In this end-of-reign atmosphere, the ecologists give the impression of having capitulated. They avoid public disputes with their liberal colleagues. Even on aid to Ukraine, which they have been defending since the beginning of the war. These settling of scores through the media has contributed to their collapse in the polls. They too are expected to record an electoral disaster on Sunday, September 1.
It is now up to them to prepare their rebound. The chairman of the Greens, Omid Nouripour, is already eyeing the 2025 general elections to end this “transitional government”. To do this, the environmentalists are seriously considering an alliance with the conservatives of the CDU. Robert Habeck, the Minister of Economy, likely to be the head of the Greens’ list in a year, no longer hides his exasperation at the electoral contortions of the Minister of Finance. During an evening with the press in his ministry, he even allowed himself to say out loud the bad things he thinks about it: “If I were elected chancellor one day, I can assure you that Christian Lindner would not be Minister of Finance”.
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