The draft state budget for 2025 is built on “somewhat optimistic” hypotheses of growth and, although “would begin the essential trajectory of reduction in deficit”, it offers “few safety margins”, estimated the High Council for Public Finance (HCFP) in a notice published Wednesday, January 29.
“This PLF (finance bill, editor’s note) would begin the essential trajectory of reduction of the deficit but offers few security margins”, estimates the High Council for Public Finance in this opinion on the budget of the State and the Budget Social Security (PLFSS), published on Wednesday. “This is indeed based on measures to be confirmed within the framework of the current parliamentary debate and in subsequent texts.”
In detail, the High Council estimates that the GDP growth forecast for 2025 (+ 0.9 %), “greater than that of economists’ consensus (+ 0.7 %), is achievable but a little optimistic in view of most recent cyclical indicators “. Likewise, “inflation forecast (+ 1.4 %) seems a little high in view of recent trends and the atony of demand,” said HCFP.
A deficit of 5.4 % of GDP in 2025?
The deficit forecast, at 5.4 % of GDP in 2025, “is also based on somewhat optimistic macroeconomic assumptions, on a clear slowdown in spending by local authorities and a high control of health insurance expenditure”, continues the ‘Independent body.
These hypotheses “must be supported by more effective measures than those which have been deployed so far, as well as on strict management of state credits,” he asked. He also notes that “the potential GDP spending ratio drops only by 0.1 point in total”.
Government spokesperson Sophie Primas assured Wednesday that negotiations were “underway” between deputies and senators gathered this Thursday in joint joint committee (CMP) to find a compromise on the finance bill for 2025.