Updated 21.53 | Published 21.51
The krone has been record weak this autumn.
But after surprising US inflation figures, the dollar fell below ten kroner in the afternoon.
Now the probability of a lower US policy rate in January is increasing.
If the Christmas trip goes to the USA or Europe over the holidays, you can count yourself lucky. The krone is now strengthening against both currencies.
Shortly after 3 p.m., a dollar could be bought for less than ten kroner. One euro for just over eleven. The temporary loss means that the dollar against the krona is currently at its lowest level since June 2022.
Unexpectedly low inflation in the US
The reason behind the krone’s slide is surprisingly low inflation data from the US on Friday.
Inflation fell to 2.6 percent in November from 3 percent in October, according to the central bank’s PCE measure. Core inflation, measured at an annual rate, fell to 3.2 percent, but had been expected by analysts to end up at the higher figure of 3.3 percent.
The PCE measure is the basis for the Fed’s policy rate decision. The target for the inflation rate is, just like the Riksbank’s, below 2 percent.
As a consequence of a lower than expected inflation rate, the probability that the US central bank will lower the policy rate in January is now increasing. Finally decided The Fed to maintain the key interest rate in the range of 5.25–5.50 percent.
Bottomed out in October
As recently as October, the krone was at rock bottom. One dollar cost over SEK 11.20 and the euro was close to the twelve mark.
Even the euro, which cost close to twelve kroner last autumn, is losing ground against the strengthened Swedish krone and costs just over kroner 11 at the time of writing.