Finally in the arena. An unfeigned impatience agitates Macronie as the televised debate between Valérie Hayer and Jordan Bardella approaches. The head of the Renaissance list in the European elections, stagnated at 17% of voting intentions, faces this Thursday evening on BFMTV the leader of the National Rally, at the top of the polls. This game will highlight the strategy of each side.
The score is known. Valérie Hayer intends to take her rival to European issues and demonstrate her fragility. The presidential camp portrays Jordan Bardella as a media beast struggling on technical subjects and without a track record in Brussels. “If she manages to destabilize him a few times, it will be positive,” says a campaign executive. The MEP was destabilized by Marion Maréchal during a debate on CNews. The confidence of the Reconquest candidate, with her political tone and truths asserted with the force of evidence, put her in difficulty. The exercise served as training.
Faced with the incompetence trial, Jordan Bardella promises a “substantive” debate to his rival. But don’t deviate from strategy. The president of the RN is turning the campaign into an anti-Macron referendum and intends to attract Valérie Hayer on national issues, such as insecurity or purchasing power. “We must not run away from national politics,” advised the head of the 2019 Renaissance list Nathalie Loiseau to her successor.
“We are not fools”
The advice summarizes the strategic ambiguity of the campaign led by the presidential camp. And the contradictory injunctions submitted to Valérie Hayer. The MEP wants to convey a European message, but does not escape the national debate. 58% of voters promise to vote on national and non-European proposals, according to an Ipsos survey for The world. The supporters of the Renaissance list have a more European prism, but do not escape the phenomenon. 26% of them first look at French subjects to make their choice. “We would dream of only talking about Europe in the campaign, but we are not fooled, notes a minister. It will also be on Franco-French subjects, such as youth violence or purchasing power.”
This nationalization is suffered. Provoked, sometimes. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal resolved to debate with Jordan Bardella, despite his initial reservations. The head of government feared offering a “gift” to the frontist leader. “It gives credence to what the RN wants, namely the nationalization of the countryside,” he said privately in February. The head of government, hardly identified on European issues, is the subject of the “sanction vote” touted by the far right.
“Macron is taking a risk”
Just like Emmanuel Macron, author of a speech at the Sorbonne on Europe, at the risk of the messenger eclipsing the message. “He took a risk,” notes a MEP. “His intervention makes it a vote for or against Macron.” But necessity is law. Macronie must take risks to mobilize its electoral base, even if it means awakening that of its adversaries.
The French have not yet entered the campaign. The main figures of the majority made this observation on Tuesday April 30 during a political committee, at the headquarters of the Renaissance party. The electoral battle is today only a backdrop to national news. The government’s announcements against minor violence or the “rabbit tax” agitate public opinion more than Valérie Hayer’s proposals. Macronie has no choice but to navigate between two waters. “We must respond to the daily concerns of our fellow citizens, without being buried by the national political debate,” summarizes campaign director Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade. Impose your strategy, without forbidding yourself from going onto your opponent’s territory. The exercise is complex.