This is the next issue of the legislative elections in France: how many triangulars will there be in the second round, which takes place on July 7? The high participation of 66.71% in the first round, almost twenty points more than in 2022, favors three-way battles. So facing the National Rally – designated as a priority opponent by the left and the camp of President Emmanuel Macron – the time for negotiations has come. On the menu, voting instructions and withdrawal strategies.
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Without transition, from the announcement of the first results of the French legislative elections 2024, the question of withdrawals for the second round burst into the campaign. It is often said that in the first round, you choose, then in the second, you eliminate. Very quickly after the first round, the tenors of the left made it known that the instruction was to block the party of Marine Le Pen, who was also re-elected in the first round in her constituency in Hénin-Beaumont. Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the lead, who spoke first.
The leader of the Insoumis – who in the 2022 presidential election said: not a vote for Marine Le Pen ” without calling for a vote for the outgoing president Emmanuel Macron – has this time been clear: the candidates of the New Popular Front qualified for the second round who are in third position behind a candidate of the presidential coalition will withdraw in favor of the best positioned. This is to prevent the election of the RN candidate, thus joining the line of his ecologist and socialist partners.
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Case by case
But in Emmanuel Macron’s camp, it is less clear. Important figures of the ex-majority such as former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, the president of Modem François Bayrou or the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire, have adopted the position of “ neither nor »: that is to say neither RN, nor LFI, making a distinction between the party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, described as far-left, and the PS or the Ecologists. The only ones for whom they accept the hypothesis of withdrawal.
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A slightly different line from that of Gabriel Attal. In his speech, the outgoing Prime Minister mentioned withdrawals in favor of candidates from the ” republican forces “, without mentioning an exception for LFI. According to a participant in the meeting that took place on Sunday June 30 around Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée, it will be a case-by-case basis. The constituencies were looked at ” one by one ” and there are only about fifteen where the question of withdrawing in the face of an LFI candidate will arise. This is out of the approximately 60 constituencies in which three-way races are taking place where the New Popular Front candidate came second.
Republican Dam ?
The Republican barrier is no longer really relevant. The prospect of the RN coming to power scares the left and the Emmanuel Macron camp. It is perceived and presented as a danger for France, but there is no longer the same mobilization as in 2002, for example, when Jean-Marie Le Pen was qualified for the second round of the presidential election. Demonization has happened and the political issues are different, with three opposing blocs now.
Since Sunday evening, there have been significant withdrawals, such as that of the left-wing candidate in favour of former Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne in Calvados. Conversely, ministers Sabrina Agresti-Roubache in Marseille and Marie Guévenoux in Essonne have withdrawn in favour of candidates from the New Popular Front.
But there are already some cracks in the instructions. The reality on the ground gives rise to exceptions in all camps. The LFI candidate will not withdraw in favor of the outgoing Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, who came out on top ahead of an RN candidate in the North: he will therefore have to face a three-way race. In Haute-Garonne, the Minister Delegate for Local Authorities and Rural Affairs Dominique Faure has also decided to remain in the running in the second round against the RN and LFI. The candidates have until Tuesday, July 2 at 6 p.m. to decide whether or not to stay in the race.
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