The Kahovka dam, located in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, collapsed early on Tuesday, causing a huge environmental disaster.
From a war point of view, the breaking of the dam has been estimated to benefit the Russian military forces in Ukraine the most. The destruction of the dam will probably make it difficult for Ukraine to counterattack and to recapture the territories occupied by Russia, experts estimate.
interviewed the former intelligence chief of the Defense Forces, Major General EVP Pekka Toveria and the head of the Department of Military Art at the National Defense University, colonel Pekka from Turku.
How will the break of the dam affect the Ukrainian counterattack?
Pekka Toveri:
– The Ukrainians had been attacking the lower reaches of the Dnieper across the river for several months and sometimes took control of areas from there, including islands on the Dnieper with western-style equipment intended for crossing waterways. According to one scenario, it would have been most attractive for the Ukrainian troops to attack in the direction of Zaporizhia and Mariupol, where the Russians are most fortified. It would have been possible to penetrate the Russians’ rear from there.
– Attacks over the water body are impossible, at least for a while. A bigger attack by Ukraine in this direction has been blocked for a long time. This makes the situation for the Russians at least somewhat easier.
– On the other hand, since October, the Ukrainians have warned that the Russians have invested in the dam and might blow it up. The Ukrainians have certainly taken this into account in their strategic planning.
Pekka Turunen:
– It has the effect of narrowing the options. The extent of the attack area is narrowing. The attack will therefore be aimed at the area east of the Zaporizhia-Melitopol axis, at least in such a short period of time. In the long term, it is impossible to say. There are no estimates on how long the flooding will last. I would estimate that at least during June and July the effect is significant.
– However, I think that Ukraine has taken this into account and will now use its plans, which have been drawn up in case the risk materializes. Significant changes to the operation do not necessarily need to be made.
Will Ukraine now have to move its troops from one front to another?
Pekka Toveri:
– Good question. We do not know how many troops were reserved for that direction in general. Not necessarily much. A total of twenty brigades have been reserved for the counterattack.
Pekka Turunen:
– It is not possible to say whether they will have to change their plans or concentrate their forces elsewhere, because we have no view of their plans. In the short term, the Kherson area is unusable for offensive operations. I consider it highly unlikely that you would start to operate across the river with ground forces.
Did the breaking of the dam narrow the front line to Donbas only?
Pekka Toveri:
– Yeah. In the lower reaches of the Dnieper, the fighting becomes quite small-scale when another hundred kilometers of the front line has been removed. Possibilities to get around the background have disappeared. The attack becomes more challenging. This is worse news for Ukraine. Yes, this has certainly been prepared for, but it would have been better for them if they could have operated in the lower reaches of the Dnieper.
Pekka Turunen:
– Yes. At the moment, the most reasonable thing would be to proceed in the direction of Zaporizhia-Melitopol. This has long been assessed as a likely attack area, and this is probably how Russia has assessed it as well. That’s why it may have closed Herson’s direction with this measure. Through that, Russia can direct the movement of Ukraine in the direction it wants, for which it has made defense preparations.
What does the situation at the front look like otherwise?
Pekka Toveri:
– Smaller-scale attacks are carried out at a steady pace. The Ukrainians have improved their positions in Bahmut to the north and south, although the city itself was lost. Ukrainians are initiators. They will certainly try to tie up the Russian forces so that it is more difficult for the Russians to judge where the main attack will come from.
– Let’s at least try to break through the first lines of defense. There are areas in the east – such as Donbas – where fighting has been going on for almost nine years. In Donbas, the population is pro-Russian and does not support the Ukrainians. There, the Russians’ supply lines are shortened, while the Ukrainians’ are longer. A hundred kilometers south of Zaporizhia is strategically not the same as a hundred kilometers in the direction of Donbass.
– Ukraine has started a counterattack, the battlefield has been modified for weeks: they have attacked Russia’s rear, destroyed supply points, fuel depots and headquarters. There are indications that there would be a bigger attack in the direction of Zaporizhia. Three brigades have appeared there as reinforcements and it may turn into a main attack.
Pekka Turunen:
– Still the same level as it has been for the past few months: no significant progress in one direction or the other. There is an operation going on that is probably preparing for a counterattack. The area between Novodonetsk and Bahmut seems to have more active activity based on public sources.
Does Ukraine now have to forget the destruction of the Kerch Strait bridge or the recapture of Crimea?
Pekka Toveri:
– I believe that whatever happens, sooner or later the Ukrainians will try to reach the shore of the Sea of Azov. It would be such a significant thing operationally. Servicing Crimea would be difficult after that, it is not serviced by ferry connections. However, it is not easy to conquer.
Pekka Turunen:
– That’s not what it means. The most direct route is currently at least temporarily blocked, but it is always possible to do things in a roundabout way. If it is thought that the counterattack would go in the direction of Melitopol and reach the Sea of Azov area and cut off the supply connection to Russia and the land connection to Crimea. After that, Ukraine will try to keep the area to itself and expand the attack and possibly advance from the direction of Melitopol towards Crimea and the Kherson region. Of course, it takes more resources: time, equipment and personnel.