Ukraine has accused Russia of mining the power plant’s dam for detonation.
Mikko Leppänen,
Elsa Osipova,
Pauliina Happo
13:53•Updated 15:14
Russian news agencies claim that the Russian-controlled Nova Kahovka hydroelectric dam in the Kherson region has been damaged by a rocket attack by the Ukrainian armed forces.
The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), on the other hand, estimated in its situation review in October that Russia was about to strike the power plant located along the Dnieper River.
ISW estimates that Russia is preparing a cover story for the attack on the power plant and would blame Ukraine for it. Flooding caused by the strike could prevent or slow Ukraine from crossing the Dnieper River.
Russian agencies say they base their information on statements from emergency officials in the region. A representative of the Russian occupation administration interviewed by the news agency Ria Novosti said that the situation is under control and the dam did not suffer critical damage.
The Russian news agency Tass claims that the hydroelectric dam was damaged in a strike carried out by the American Himars rocket launcher system. According to the emergency authority, six rockets would have been used in the attack, five of which would have been intercepted by the air defense and one would have damaged the dam.
According to the Reuters news agency, the official quoted by Tassi said that it was an “attempt to cause a humanitarian disaster”.
The Russian sources have not presented any evidence for their claims.
The importance of the dam has increased
The Nova Kahovka dam is located in the upper reaches of the Dnipro River as seen from Kherson. Ukrainian forces have recently advanced in the region. At the same time, the dam’s strategic importance has grown.
Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly accused each other of planning to blow up the dam.
Damage to the dam is a serious matter for many reasons, Yelle Aleksanteri Institute Visiting Researcher estimates Ilmari Käihkö.
– The dam is of great importance because the water resources of the Crimea region come from this area. If this dam is damaged now, it means that the Crimea region will no longer receive water, says Käihkö.
The failure of the dam would cause floods, which would probably lead to extensive destruction in the Kherson region.
– The immediate effect is that the destruction of the dam would make it difficult for the Ukrainians to advance in the Kherson region, Käihkö states.
The researcher believes that Russia could also practice scorched earth tactics by destroying the dam itself.
– So if Russia can’t keep the Kherson region, they don’t want to leave it to the Ukrainians either.
Käihkö reminds that Russia has previously targeted the energy infrastructure of Ukraine.
– This dam produces electricity. So, in that sense too, it is in Russia’s interest to damage the dam.
At the end of October, Ukraine claimed that Russia had mined the aggregate and dam of the Nova Kahovka hydroelectric power plant.
Sources: AFP, Reuters